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Construction bounces back after a recent stall in growth

After a torrid month in May for construction, figures began to move in the right direction across June, with contract awards increasing by twelve per-cent, as a number of high profile projects were given the green light.

The latest edition of the Economic & Construction Market Review from industry analysts Barbour ABI, highlights the levels of construction contract values awarded in June across all regions of Great Britain, which totalled £5.5 billion based on a three-month rolling average, an increase on the £4.9bn from May.

London led all regions with 26 per cent of the total construction contract value for June. This was greatly helped by the North Quay Poplar development contract award, worth £800 million, the
largest project across all of construction on the month.

Across the various construction sectors, it was Residential building that produced the highest value on the month, reaching £2.5 billion, bouncing back admirably after a dip in May when it decreased to £1.7 billion. Furthermore, four of the top ten biggest projects in June came from the Residential sector. There were also monthly increases in Industrial, Commercial & Retail and Medical & Healthcare. The largest decrease came from Infrastructure, which lacked a high value project on the month to help increase its figures.

Looking at construction in June across the UK regions outside of London, the dominance continued across southern England with the South East in second place for construction contract value with £713 million awarded, followed by the South West in joint third place with the North West, each tied at £627 million.

Commenting on the figures, Lead Economist at Barbour ABI Michael Dall said “The construction sector bounced back after an election-focused month in May, as the residential sector once again performed strongly, continuing the trend of it holding the construction sector steady. However with declines in value from Hotel, Leisure & Sport and in particular Infrastructure, there is continuous pressure on Residential to achieve high values every month.”

“With the Governments increasing focus on raising the levels of major infrastructure projects, it’s surprising to see a lack of development in this sector across June. The anticipation however, is that we will see larger public sector contracts come to the forefront, such as offshore wind farms, energy plants and motorway upgrades as we continue into 2017.”

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The UK construction outlook is positive despite challenges

Despite worries surrounding Brexit, tighter margins and labour supply to name a few, optimism across Britain’s construction sector is relatively high in regards to potential growth and future profits, according to the 2017 Construction Sentiment Survey.

Causeway Technologies and Barbour ABI’s survey of the construction sector – measuring various levels of optimism, growth & obstacles within the industry, found that of those surveyed 71 per cent believe that their company’s revenue is expected to grow in 2017 compared to last year and 63 per cent foresee a growth in profits.

The survey also found that the three biggest issues facing the construction industry are stronger competitors, labour supply and customer demand.

Construction

A large proportion of construction companies (67 per cent) are already implementing cost-reduction measures, however they are more prevalent in larger companies (82 per cent) compared to smaller companies (58 per cent). However, the survey also showed evidence of initiatives for growth, with almost 70 per cent believing that their company is implementing initiatives to fuel growth in 2017.

Colin Smith, Chief Executive Officer at Causeway Technologies commented “The UK construction industry is facing considerable change in the coming years and needs to be well prepared for what lies ahead.”

“Whilst it is clear from the survey that construction professionals remain reasonably optimistic about 2017 with the industry growing steadily since 2013, they are also aware that they face an array of challenges, with a significant number of companies already looking at how they can cut costs and improve efficiency.”

“Identifying the issues is clearly the first step in tackling them, the next stage is for construction companies to introduce the solutions that will help them perform better in the face of the challenges they expect to encounter in 2017.”

Commenting on the figures, Michael Dall, Lead Economist at Barbour ABI, said “Construction firms are looking to “future proof” and expand markets to meet the economic challenges that inevitably lie ahead.”

“The industry appears to be learning its lessons from the years of subdued performance between 2009 and 2012 with many considering closely its initiatives for growth, issues facing their businesses but also ensuring the systems are in place to ensure they can weather any future downturn.”

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Construction figures on the increase across February

Spearheaded by strong performances from the housing and hotel, leisure & sport sectors, overall contract value for the construction industry in February reached £6.4 billion based on a three month rolling average, a 15.4 per cent increase on the same month last year.

According to the latest edition of the Economic & Construction Market Review from industry analysts Barbour ABI, contracts for housing projects reached £2.7 billion in February, the same figure as January 2017, which are the best performing months for residential building since the economic downturn. Coinciding with the strong housing figures, the hotel, leisure & sport sector construction contracts reached £736 million (see figure 1.1) on the month, a substantial 105.3 per cent increase compared to February 2016.

Barbour ABI

Looking across the other sectors within construction; Infrastructure accounted for £1.48 billion worth of construction contracts on the month, a 20.8 per cent increase on January. Commercial & retail projects also increased month on month by 17.5 per cent – the highest since September 2016, although values in the sector remain lower than previously when viewed over the longer term.

However it was the industrial sector that accounted for the most disappointing figures in February, with a 35 per cent year-on-year decrease and its lowest monthly total since October 2014.

Whilst the value of construction contracts remained very strong on the month, the number of projects saw a decline of 19.6 per cent compared with January. Larger, more valuable projects were commissioned in February, including projects such as a £400 million Port of Dover job and the Trafford Park Metrolink extension, valued at £350 million.

Commenting on the figures, Michael Dall, Lead Economist at Barbour ABI, said “After recent slumps in the infrastructure and commercial & retail sectors, it was encouraging to see both bounce back and produce encouraging figures in February, alleviating some of the pressure away from housebuilding.”

“With the hotel, leisure & sport sector recording its highest construction contract value in years, it will give the sector a well needed confidence boost, thanks greatly to a £400 million holiday resort, another major project given the go-ahead in February, a trend that made last month a positive one for construction.”

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Expectations for construction workloads regain lost ground

Expectations across the construction sector have now regained the ground lost post the EU vote, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Construction Market Survey, Q4 2016.

  • National workloads still positive with the private housing displaying strongest momentum
    Road and rail set to be the fastest growing infrastructure sectors over next twelve months
    Expectations for workloads, employment and profit margins improve

An overview

Following a noticeable dip around the time of the EU referendum, expectations for output growth over the year to come strengthened for the second consecutive report. Indeed, the twelve month workloads expectations series improved to post a reading of +57% (following +49% and +23% in Q3 and Q2 respectively).

Alongside this, employment expectations improved for the second straight report, with 41% more respondents anticipating a rise in construction sector employment over the year to come. As such, both employment and workload expectations have now recovered to their pre-referendum levels.
The latest results point to modest growth across the sector in the final quarter of 2016, with 18% more respondents reporting an increase in total workloads. However, while the data is broadly positive, the anecdotal comments left by chartered surveyors do continue to highlight uncertainty surrounding the departure from the EU to be dampening investment and activity.

During Q4, output increased in most sub sectors except public non-housing. Following the pattern of the last three quarters, the strongest quarterly rise in workloads was reported in the private housing sector. 27% more respondents cited an increase in private housing workloads (rather than a decrease). A rise in workloads was also reported in the private commercial and infrastructure sectors.

Meanwhile, both output and input costs rose in Q4 2016 with input prices extending a run of uninterrupted growth stretching back to Q2 2010.

Forthcoming

Over the next twelve months, respondents continue to expect the road and rail sub categories of infrastructure to post the most significant increases in construction output at the national level. Regionally, expectations for growth in railway output lead the way in London, the North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, Wales and the West Midlands. Meanwhile, expectations for growth in road construction activity come out on top in all other areas of the UK.
Skill shortages continue to be a key impediment to growth in the sector, although they have eased in five consecutive reports. Interestingly however, the one area that remains a particular concern is the shortage of quantity surveyors with 66% of respondents highlighting a gap. This is the highest figure since 2008.

Jeremy Blackburn, RICS Head of Policy said “Many firms are currently having to bring construction professionals in from outside the UK. The lack of quantity surveyors consistently apparent in our survey is also underscored by the fact that, at the moment, under the government’s Shortage Occupation List, it is easier to employ a ballet dancer than a quantity surveyor.

“Even if we were to reverse this and also ensure that through Brexit we maintain access to EU workforce, we would still have a domestic shortfall of skills. The Industrial Strategy is a golden opportunity to align education, training and employer work paths – along with modern methods of construction – to ensure we have the skilled workforce to meet our building targets.”

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, added “The latest results suggest that the construction sector has shrugged off concerns about the effect of Brexit with key workload indicators remaining firm around the country. Indeed, feedback regarding the outlook over the next twelve months is now rosier than it was back in the autumn with more building anticipated as 2017 unfolds.

“That said, there remains some unease about access to skilled labour in the emerging new world and financial constraints still remain a major challenge for many businesses. And significantly, we are being told that a shortage of quantity surveyors is impacting on the development process at the present time.”

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Number of suspended projects on the rise

The number of projects being put on hold by clients is on the rise. At present, it appears to be smaller value schemes that are currently being suspended, with the value of underlying projects being placed on hold down on a year ago.

Glenigan has identified a 28% increase in number of projects being placed on hold during the third quarter of this year against the same period last year. In contrast the value of projects being suspended (excluding schemes of £100m or more) was 10% lower.

Whilst the number of projects being placed on hold remained subdued in July in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, it has risen during August and September.

Looking across the sectors, the rise in the number of private residential, office and hotel & leisure projects being placed on hold suggests that clients may be reviewing the viability of some planned schemes post-referendum.

Oct25_On_Hold September_2016

However, the Brexit vote is not the only factor at work. The utilities sector has seen by far the sharpest rise in the number and value of projects being placed on hold. Indeed that sector has seen a sharp rise in suspended projects since the start of 2016 and, the number of projects put on hold in the third quarter was 92% up on a year ago. The sharp rise in suspended projects appears to be in response to the Government’s cuts in the feed in tariff rates for renewable projects; almost half of the projects are renewable energy schemes whilst a third are waste treatment projects often involving energy recovery.

Elsewhere there has been an encouraging decline in the number of projects being placed on hold, with fewer retail and social housing projects being suspended during the third quarter. Overall the latest on-hold project data highlights that volatile market conditions facing the industry and the need for firms to be able to identify and respond to new opportunities as they emerge.

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Good and bad news for construction last month

After more than two months since the Brexit vote, it’s good news for the residential construction sector, as the value of contracts awarded reached £1.7 billion in August, an increase of 13% compared to the same time last year, based on a three month rolling average.

According to the August edition of the Economic & Construction Market Review from industry analysts Barbour ABI, it was the residential and infrastructure sector that kept the industry on a steady pace last month, delivering £3 billion of the £5.5 billion total construction contracts awarded.

It should also be noted that residential construction across the first two post-Brexit months (July & August) are significantly higher figures than when compared to the same months in 2015.

However even with the strong results from the residential sector, it was not enough to mark an improvement for overall construction new orders as they were down to £5.5 billion in August, a month-on-month drop of £300 million, although this is traditionally a slower summer month.

The commercial & retail sector particularly struggled in August, experiencing a decrease of 43% compared to August 2015, which continues a poor run of performance over the long term for the sector.

Commenting on the figures, Michael Dall, lead economist at Barbour ABI, said: “The construction sector is yet to experience the full post-Brexit effects that were forecasted to occur after the result was announced. The mixed results from the residential sector has still been robust enough to keep the industry in a position to potentially grow in the near and long-term future.

“Developers are also keen to keep progressing with major projects, such as the £750 million Galloper offshore wind farm and the £150 million Greenwich Peninsula residential development commissioned this month alone, which in turn is helping to build confidence and provide a well needed boost across the industry.”

Read the full report here.
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UK construction sector moves closer to stabilisation in August

UK construction companies indicated a sustained reduction in business activity during August, but the pace of decline was only marginal and much softer than the seven-year record seen during July. New order volumes also moved closer to stabilisation, with the latest reduction the least marked since May. This contributed to a renewed rise in staffing levels across the construction sector and a rebound in business expectations for the next 12 months. However, latest data indicated a further steep acceleration in input cost inflation.

Purchasing prices rose at the fastest pace for just over five years amid reports that exchange rate depreciation had acted as a catalyst for increased charges among suppliers of construction materials.

At 49.2 in August, the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) remained below the 50.0 no-change threshold for the third consecutive month. However, the index was up from July’s 85- month low (45.9), and the latest reading signalled the slowest pace of decline since the downturn began in June.

Sub-sector data pointed to much slower reductions in housing activity and commercial building than those recorded in July. In both cases, the rate of contraction in August was the slowest for three months. Meanwhile, civil engineering activity stabilised in August, following a reduction during the previous month.

Reports from survey respondents suggested that Brexit uncertainty continued to act as a brake on the construction sector during August, especially in terms of house building and commercial work. However, a number of firms noted that sales volumes had been more resilient than expected. Some panel members also commented on signs of a rebound in client confidence from the lows seen earlier this summer. Reflecting this, latest data highlighted that incoming new work decreased at the slowest pace since May.

Signs of a more stable trend for new business volumes resulted in a marginal expansion of staffing levels across the construction sector in Page 2 of 4 © IHS Markit 2016 August. However, subcontractor usage continued to decrease, and rates charged by sub-contractors rose at the second-slowest pace since June 2013.

Construction firms also cut back on their purchasing activity in August, which extended the current period of decline to three months. Softer demand for construction materials resulted in the least marked deterioration in supplier performance since April.

August data indicated that input cost inflation picked up for the third month running and reached its highest level since July 2011. Survey respondents overwhelmingly linked the latest rise in input prices to exchange rate depreciation.

Looking ahead, construction firms pointed to a rebound in business confidence from July’s 39- month low. Although the degree of positive sentiment was the highest since May, it remained close to the weakest recorded over the past three years.

Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI®, said “The downturn in UK construction activity has eased considerably since July, primarily helped by a much slower decline in commercial building. Construction firms cited a nascent recovery in client confidence since the EU referendum result and a relatively steady flow of invitations to tender in August.

“However, the latest survey indicates only a partial move towards stabilisation, rather than a return to business as usual across the construction sector. There were still widespread reports that Brexit uncertainty had dampened demand and slowed progress on planned developments, especially in relation to large projects. As a result, total new order volumes continued to fall during August, which stands in contrast to the three-year run of sustained growth seen prior to May 2016.

“Despite another month of reduced output, the latest figures can be viewed as welcome news overall after a challenging summer for the construction sector. The move towards stabilisation chimes with the more upbeat UK manufacturing PMI data for August, and provides hope that the near-term fallout from Brexit uncertainty will prove less severe than feared.”

David Noble, Group Chief Executive Officer at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, said “Purchasing costs went up at a rate not seen for half a decade, as the impact of the weak pound was felt by the construction sector. Firms reduced their purchasing volumes as a result, as new orders and activity continued to fall – though at a more moderate rate compared to last month. Costs for energy and raw materials such as steel and timber were highlighted as company margins were squeezed.

“Employment levels recovered to a modest degree, though at the second-slowest pace for three years. Some firms reported that they planned to increase staff numbers in hopeful anticipation of a surge in activity towards the end of the year. Business sentiment was moderately more positive than that seen in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.

“After the shock of last month’s seven-year low in the overall index, the picture now is more about stabilisation than searing growth, as the sector remained in contraction. The housing sector continued its downward slide, but the drop in activity was much softer in August.”

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Construction workloads continue to grow slowly, post-referendum

The pace of increase in workloads in the construction market continues to slow, according to the latest RICS UK Construction Market Survey, extending a trend that goes back to the middle of last year.

This flatter picture is visible across all sectors; 17% more respondents reported a rise in activity over the previous three months compared with 28% in the first quarter, with the most pronounced slowdowns being seen in the private commercial, industrial and housing segments. That said, 27% more contributors still reported a rise in private housing activity – down from 36% in Q1 – while 17% more respondents saw their workloads in the private commercial sector rise rather than fall in Q2.

Significantly, for the second successive quarter, the biggest constraint on output according to respondents is finance with more than two-third of contributors highlighting this as the principal challenge. In breaking down the term financial constraints, 36% of respondents reported that a lack of funding was restricting new developments. Meanwhile, planning and regulatory delays also remain a key issue with 60% of respondents citing that these are constraining growth.

Despite the slowdown in activity in Q2, skills shortages remain a problem with 56% of contributors reporting that a lack of appropriately skilled labour was a constraint on growth. Bricklayers and quantity surveyors remain in particularly short supply with 59% and 57% of respondents citing difficulties in these areas.

The more uncertain prospects for the economy have led to a less optimistic outlook for the sector over the year ahead. Although, putting this in perspective, 23% more contributors still expect activity to rise rather than fall over this period. On average, contributors foresee their workloads increasing by 1% over the coming 12 months, down from the 2.8% growth predicted in Q1.
Expectations for employment growth have also moderated significantly with a rise of 0.6% anticipated, down from 2% the previous quarter.

Aside from in Scotland where activity flatlined relative to Q1, respondents in all other parts of the UK continue to report a rise in workloads.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, commented “The latest results from the RICS Construction Market Survey suggest that the second quarter of the year saw a further moderation in the growth trend which is not altogether surprising given the build-up to the EU referendum. Significantly, the biggest issue at the present time alongside uncertainty looks to be credit constraints with over two thirds of contributors highlighting this issue as a concern.

“Encouragingly, the swift actions of the Bank of England in creating additional capacity for the banking sector to provide funding to meet demand should help alleviate some of this pressure. Nevertheless, anecdotal evidence does indicate that the challenge for the British government in establishing a new relationship with the EU could see some investment plans in the construction sector scaled back.”

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Construction in March gains momentum after a slow start to the year

Construction in March gains momentum after a slow start to the year.

After a subdued start for construction in 2016 the industry picked up the pace in March, with £6.1 billion worth of construction contracts delivered. This is the highest figures of the year to date which was particularly influenced by the continued strength of the residential sector.

According to the latest Economic & Construction Market Review from industry analysts Barbour ABI, total construction contract value figures for March were almost 10% higher than in February.

Alongside the improving figures, residential construction contract values were worth £1.9 billion in March, 31 per cent of the total amount of contracts for the month.

The positive news from March continues as the commercial & retail sector increased its monthly contract value by 25 per cent and Infrastructure by 30 per cent, which is an extra £500 million of contract value compared to February.

Commenting on the figures, Michael Dall, lead economist at Barbour ABI, said “it’s encouraging to see the industry pick up the pace after a lacklustre start to the year. Housebuilding once again continues to storm ahead in the industry, as housebuilders continue to try to keep pace with the demand and appetite for new housing.”

“With both the commercial & retail and infrastructure sectors increasing their levels of activity in March, it would be good to see this continue and take some of the pressure away from private housing, which has been the only sector that has continually grown and at times propped up the industry in recent years.”

“With the EU referendum looming, this will be interesting to follow over the coming months to see what affect it will have across the construction sector as there is anecdotal evidence to suggest this is starting to make an impact on investment decisions inside the boardrooms of construction firms.”

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Fresh warning sign for construction industry

New construction activity has fallen back into contraction, according to figures released today by industry analysts Glenigan.

The value of new projects starting on site was 4% lower than a year earlier during the three months to November. Housing, non-residential and civil engineering starts were all scarcer during the period compared to this time last year.

The amount of new commercial and industrial work was flat on a year earlier during the latest period. Growth in the industrial and hotel and leisure sectors offset falling starts of both office and retail schemes.

Commenting on this month’s figures, Allan Wilén, Glenigan’s Economics Director, said: “The latest evidence on commercial construction starts is disappointing given the continued strength of the economic backdrop.”

“However the forward pipeline is much more positive. In the office sector, for example, the value of work achieving planning approval has risen by more than 50% during the last three months.”

Less surprisingly, the public sector is continuing to hold back growth. The value of the health sector is forecast to fall by a quarter during the course of 2015 alone: during the latest three months starts were almost 50% down on a year earlier. The education sector is also in decline. Despite schools funding overall being ring-fenced, government capital programmes do not seem to be making a huge impact on the ground.

Private housing activity grew modestly, up 2% on a year ago. This rise was more than offset by the drag from the social housing sector, where starts were 9% down on a year ago. The sector is bracing itself for three years of reductions in rents. Plans for increased support of housebuilding have been aimed squarely at increasing home ownership, bringing little relief for the rented accommodation model championed by Housing Associations.

According to Mr Wilén: “The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement pledges on housing appear to be a further boon to the private housing sector. In the short term, activity may undergo a pause as developers assess how best to reap the potential rewards.”

The civil engineering sector also saw an 8% annual decline in starts, as growth in utilities work was unable to offset contracting infrastructure starts.

Most parts of the UK have been dragged backwards by weakening commercial and public sector construction. Northern England and the Midlands have led growth through 2015. However only West Midlands and the North East have stayed in the black; the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands have all moved into decline in the latest figures.

London and the South East, by contrast, have returned to growth after being hit especially hard by an election hiatus and the slowing in the housing market earlier this year.

No such change in fortunes for the UK’s other constituent nations: Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have all failed to record growth since March 2015.

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