Joe Bradbury discusses the fourth industrial revolution which is currently underway and what digitisation and technological advancement might spell for our industry:

We find ourselves on the brink of a fourth industrial revolution. Industrial Revolution, in modern history, can be defined as the process of change from an agrarian and handicraft economy to one dominated by industry and machine manufacturing. This process began in Britain in the 18th century and from there spread to other parts of the world.

What has come to be known by modern historians as the first Industrial Revolution lasted from the mid-18th century to around 1830 and was mostly confined to Britain. The second Industrial Revolution lasted from the mid-19th century until the early 20th century and took place in Britain, continental Europe, North America, and Japan.

The third revolution spread even further still, bringing about the rise of electronics, telecommunications and computers. These new technologies changed our world drastically, opening the doors to space expeditions, digital research, and biotechnology.

In 2017 data finally surpassed oil in value. Welcome to a new age.

 

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is now well underway, and can be described as the coming together of multiple advances within the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, the Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing, quantum computing, etc.

The term itself describes perfectly the ever-dissolving boundaries between the physical, digital, and biological. As technology and digitalisation gains pace, so too does our newfound dependency upon it; as such many products and services of modern life are quickly becoming indispensable. Where would we be now without GPS, virtual reality, BIM, robotics and social media? Are we hooked on innovation? Will it be the making of us or our undoing? …Only time will tell!

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is definitely paving the way for hugely transformative changes in not only our perception, but also the way we live and work on a day-to-day basis. Change is underway, radically disrupting almost every business sector. The construction industry is of no exception to this, rippling to the shockwaves. How will 4IR affect us?

What 4IR means for construction

Even a quick scan of trade media outlets will show you that the future of the construction industry is a highly debated topic. Will it be offsite? Will it be smart homes? Will it be social housing? Will it be modular? Will it be sustainable? We ask many questions and posit many well-informed answers, but when doing so we are essentially gazing into a crystal ball.

One thing we can agree on is that you simply cannot stay the same in a world that is changing. This is a recipe for disaster. It is widely accepted that the construction sector has been slow to adapt to change in recent history. Indeed, this unwillingness to break from the norm is the very reason why offsite has not been adopted to anywhere near the levels it should be in order to meet modern demand and make a meaningful dent in the current housing crisis, in spite of its huge potential.

Regardless of the latest advancements in technology, cost and schedule over-runs are still considered normal and labour productivity has not kept pace with economic productivity. Of course, there are always many unforeseen challenges that arise when rolling out new technology at scale across a complex supply chain such as the construction industry, but simply soldiering on as we always have done is not the answer. These are challenges that must be overcome.

How to change along with the world

There are numerous technologies around that can greatly assist companies in digitally transforming, with new ones continually coming to the fold. The first stage in making sure we keep up with the rate of change being brought about by the fourth industrial revolution begins in our mind. We must embrace technology, with a positive mindset towards change, and make it work for us. This change of mindset is fundamental to the success of our industry in a modern age.

The push for sustainability

The UK construction industry is currently responsible for 45% of total UK carbon emissions, 32% of all landfill waste and is responsible for more water pollution incidents than any other industry. We are the largest consumer of natural resources in the UK today; a stark point that highlights just how high up on the agenda reconsideration of our building practices should be. The impact of our materials usage on the environment in of itself is staggering; a recent report by Willmott Dixon Group suggested that the construction industry alone is accountable for around 45-50% of global energy usage, nearly 50% of worldwide water usage, and around 60% of the total usage of raw materials.

The good news is that 4IR is bringing about the knowledge, skills and technology to facilitate real change in the world.

Growing demand for environmental solutions is driving innovation within the areas of building operations, site design, maintenance, repair and demolition and recycling. This is a positive thing, leading us to strive for zero energy buildings and sustainable indoor environments through the development of technologies such as renewable heating and smart devices.

Efficiency is becoming a much larger focus, and as such materials need to be cost-effective, durable and low impact on the environment. A challenge, no doubt; but one that we will benefit from greatly in overcoming it.

The need for safety post-Covid

The Covid pandemic will also play a huge role in shaping the world of tomorrow. Empowering the workforce to work remotely, flexibly and more adeptly will be ever more important over the coming years. We cannot afford all of this lockdown nonsense again. Will increased uptake of cloud services drive efficiency and increase productivity? Only if we embrace this change with an open mind!

This area of change will take some getting used to. However, the need for businesses to continue operating throughout this pandemic they have had to adapt quick to their workforce working from home, and out of necessity great innovations have taken place in order to facilitate this. Perhaps in the future AI, bots, and chat options will enable businesses to digitalise and automate the front office… but it cannot replace the need for customer interaction entirely.

We have all felt the frustrations of speaking to a bot on a phone!

In summary

The world seems to be changing so quickly now that the debate on whether or not it is a good thing is becoming irrelevant. In order for industries to survive and thrive, they must be open to change. Our role in this must not be that of a luddite. We must dive into it and ensure we take every step in our power to get it right. If we do this, the rewards and benefits that new technologies can bring to our industry will be huge, justifying the time we must now devote to its adoption.

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The UK was originally due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. But a few extensions, a pandemic and over four and a half years after the referendum, and there’s still no clear sign of a done deal. Since the initial shock following the referendum it was one of the only things the construction industry can think about… until the Covid pandemic. What will Brexit really mean for construction? We have been plunged into the unknown and understandably concern and fear has arisen. However, it isn’t all doom and gloom for the construction industry going forward, and regardless of your opinion on Brexit it is everybody’s responsibility to roll up their sleeves and help make it work.

Strength in unity

After 52% of UK voters deciding to leave the European Union back in 2016, organisers of the UK’s largest construction event called for a united front in the industry to face the challenges and opportunities ahead.

 

Nathan Garnett, Event Director for UK Construction Week at the time commented “A new dawn for UK construction begins here. It is inevitable that our industry will experience a period of uncertainty and adjustment, but the construction sector has proved time and time again to be incredibly resilient. Now the result of the referendum is clear, we, as an industry, must move forward together with confidence. Leaving the EU will likely mean UK construction firms will be looking to invest in British products and services like never before.

 

“The UK boasts many long-term infrastructure projects and the Bank of England have made sound contingency plans for leaving the EU. The UK also has the foundations for a boom in house building, and the industry must and will be committed to meeting the national need for housing. Leaving the EU will inevitably attract new investors to our shores offering new opportunities, and that will happen sooner rather than later. The last few weeks and months have been uncertain for the UK construction industry, but now is the time to embrace the change and these new opportunities.”

 

“Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”

Social media reverberate rumours that the bottom has fallen out of the industry and the wider economy overall, many are actually quietly reporting that both the overall uncertainty and the subsequent result of the referendum have actually had little to no impact on their business activity.

In a year-end trading statement released by Redrow housebuilders at the end of last year, Chairman Steve Morgan indicated that annual profits were expected to be at the upper level of city expectations of £240m. “Although it is too early to tell whether Brexit will have any effect on future sales, initial feedback is that sites remain busy, reservations continue to be taken.”

David Orr, Chief Executive at the National Housing Federation highlights the importance of a strong stance as an industry. Speaking on behalf of the Federation, he said “We recognise the uncertainty that Brexit has brought to the sector and we are working with our housing association members to support them to continue delivering the homes and services this country needs. Whatever happens there is still a housing crisis and we remain committed to ending it.”

David Brown, the head of agency Marsh & Parsons, addressed the widespread moral panic gripping the housing sector in The Guardian. He pointed out that regardless of the result of the referendum there was still plenty of pent-up demand in the UK housing market “leaving the EU doesn’t change that overnight.”

He added: “When you think back to before the financial crisis and the volume of transactions we were witnessing on an annual basis, there’s clearly scope for further improvement. The decision to leave doesn’t alter the fact that plenty of people have to and still want to move.”

 

One reason perhaps that indicates that Brexit will not impact the construction industry quite as heavily as other sectors is that many construction companies work exclusively within the UK. A recent CBI study into the implications of British withdrawal from the EU, showed that construction is the second most domestically focused major UK sector, surpassed by a hairs breadth by Government. “It’s a domestic market, so while there are some that operate internationally, what really affects them is what they do in the UK,” says Suzannah Nichol, chief executive of Build UK.

Home-grown talent

Whilst the skills gap is likely to worsen in the short term, Brexit is perhaps the catalyst for change long term regarding the training and retention of a better homegrown workforce. According to the Federation of Master Builders (FMB) The UK construction industry has been heavily reliant on migrant workers from Europe for decades now – at present, 12% of the British construction workers are of non-UK origin.

 

Brian Berry, Chief Executive of the FMB, said “we need to ensure that we invest in our own home-grown talent through apprenticeship training. We need to train more construction apprentices so we are not overly reliant on migrant workers from Europe or further afield. That’s why it’s so important that the Government gets the funding framework right for apprenticeships – when you consider that this whole policy area is currently in flux, and then you add Brexit into the mix, it’s no exaggeration to say that a few wrong moves by the Government could result in the skills crisis becoming a skills catastrophe. The next few years will bring unprecedented challenges to the construction and house building sector, and it’s only through close collaboration between the Government and industry that we’ll be able to overcome them.”

In summary

In summary, the biggest immediate threat to the construction industry following our departure from the EU is widespread confusion, stalling due to a feeling of insecurity and failure to act going forward. All this will undoubtedly be exacerbated by the ever unfolding Covid phenomenon.

It is a true testament to our industry that amidst such chaos demand remains strong as shown by reports from some of the major contractors and housebuilder’s across the UK. The construction sector remains strong but we need to keep moving and resist succumbing to hype in order to ensure it stays this way. It has to be business as usual. Keep calm, carry on and brace yourself for Brexit!

 

by Joe Bradbury

 

 

As our wants, needs and behaviours are forced to change with the integration of new considerations into our daily lives, will offsite construction play a greater role in delivering the built environment we need whilst simultaneously keeping a workforce as safe as it can possibly be?  Joe Bradbury discusses:

How many politicians does it take to change a lightbulb? Just one, it seems. All they need do is hold it in place while the world revolves around them. Whilst politicians play with people’s lives and livelihoods, the construction sector attempts to soldier on, accounting for 6% of Britain’s economic output and providing employment for 2.3 million people, according to official figures from the ONS.

However, as CIOB rightly pointed out in a recent research paper entitled ‘The Real Face of Construction 2020’, this figure does not take into account the work of architects, engineers and quantity surveyors as well as manufacturers dedicated to the sector and many other firms that support construction, such as builders’ merchants and plant hire providers.

Needless to say, construction matters… and in a rapidly changing modern world, our construction methods matter more than ever. What role will offsite construction play in Covid world? Let’s take a look:

Social distancing and less time on site

As most offsite construction work is carried out offsite, there is a reduced assembly time on site with fewer tradesmen required. Offsite construction is considerably quicker than traditional on-site methods. As such, sites are measurably quieter than traditional construction sites with fewer people needing to be there to carry out works.

A recent study carried out by the Steel Construction Institute on a 4-storey residential building estimated that the total amount of site labour could be reduced by as much as 75% through the use of offsite construction – an obvious benefit to the local residents in terms of the general level of site activity and the number of vehicles travelling to and from the site, but also a clear advantage to anybody trying to navigate the ever-changing Covid restrictions and guidelines that serve to prevent us from delivering the homes this country so sorely needs.

Controlled build environment

Even before we awoke from the Brexit dream into a Coronavirus nightmare, transferring much of the construction programme from an open site to a controlled factory environment was proven to reduce on-site time for workers and reduces the potential for site-based accidents and ill health. Now, at a time when it is widely considered necessary to keep people apart, this seems more advantageous to any builder attempting to run a business at this complicated time.

Factory controlled conditions mean a better quality of build; better finish; fewer defects; all snagging complete and all services tested. These advantages are matched by those for the skilled workforce who are carrying out the work – a warm, controlled and enclosed workplace where their health and safety can be observed properly, significantly reducing the risk of accidents, ill-health or exposure to a flu virus.

Housing shortage

The UK finds itself in the midst of an acute housing crisis. Current annual construction levels are typically less than half of the estimated 250,000 new homes this country needs built every year through to at least the 2030s. With only 63% of projects delivered on time and only 49% delivered to budget, it’s clear to see that traditional building practices, whilst still integral, are falling short of meeting major challenges on their own.

There is an urgent need for a mass volume of houses to be constructed in a limited time scale and whether the state takes on housebuilding, or if it is left to private house builders, the benefits of offsite construction could be crucial to meeting targets that have repeatedly been missed. Offsite construction provides housebuilders with programme certainty and quality though simplification of site operations and reduced weather dependencies due to the controlled factory-based assembly process. Houses delivered through offsite construction offer enhanced specification standards and build quality which reduces occupancy costs related to energy use, defects and repairs. There is significant evidence that suggests that the use of offsite construction has been successful when applied to meet the needs of significant housing developments at scale with consequential opportunities for standardisation of design details – particularly to meet the need of government led programmes.

Offsite housing construction looks set to grow in a post-pandemic world. Demand is expected to be driven by several contributing factors; mainly by the ongoing shortage of homes across Britain and the declining numbers of key skilled tradesmen and professionals, which in turn increases demand in offsite housing manufacturing and output capacity.

Key areas of demand are likely to be where there is an urgency to increase the rate of completions, such as affordable housing and Build-to-Rent.

The environment still matters… more than ever!

Covid-aside, we need to reduce our impact on the planet as a species fast… otherwise, there will not be a platform for all of our opinions, actions and debates to take place upon. I would argue that this is the one truth that we can all agree on.

The built environment contributes around 40% of the UK’s total carbon footprint. Despite erratic annual variations, the carbon footprint of the built environment has reduced since 1990, but we still have a considerable way to go. Newly constructed buildings are more energy efficient, but 80% of buildings that will be in use in the year 2050 have already been built today, so a major priority will be decarbonising our existing stock through modern construction technology.

Builders are now rightly expected to create sustainable and energy efficient buildings as part of the greater effort to reduce CO2 emissions, energy consumption and waste as an industry. As such, environmental considerations will transform how our buildings are constructed, what materials are used and which methods are employed.

Offsite construction is far less energy intensive than traditional housebuilding methods. The carbon footprint left by the many construction vehicles and machinery on the site of a traditional construction project alone is considerably larger than that of modular construction. Put simply, fewer vehicles involved and less time spent on site results in less greenhouse gases being released into our environment.

In summary

Although Covid-19 and the subsequent clumsy government responses around the globe has caused untold devastation to our mental health, our lives and our economies, it also hit pause for a brief few moments on an unsustainable model, affording us an offset perspective on our habits as a species.

It would be a shame if all that was taken from it was pain and destruction. Times of difficulty are also times of great learning.

We all heard beautiful stories in the beginning of city smog clearing to reveal clear blue skies over capital cities around the world. The pandemic shone a light on our need for change.

With this in mind, a transition to a low-carbon economy presents our industry with great opportunities for growth, something we will need to focus on to recuperate some of the economic damages inflicted upon us by rash decisions and a coronavirus bill.

Environmental considerations, will transform how our buildings are constructed, what materials are used and the methods employed. The world is changing and the time is right for the construction industry to embrace innovative technology and offsite techniques to develop better buildings at a rapid rate to enhance lives, minimise the environmental impact and reduce energy costs for occupants for many years to come.

 

How Covid-19 restrictions are impacting the health, wealth and wellbeing of our architects.

#architects #pandemic #constructionprojects #RIBA

 

Running a business through a pandemic is like fighting with one arm tied behind your back. Buildingspecifier.com’s Joe Bradbury takes a look at how the draconian Covid-19 restrictions are impacting the health, wealth and wellbeing of our architects.

In order for our built environment to meet the needs of its people, we need good architects.

Back in May, the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) Future Trends Workload highlighted the scale of the impact Covid-19 restrictions were having on business. The showed that:

  • Workloads were at significantly reduced levels – down 33% compared to May 2019.
  • 73% of respondents expected profits to fall over the next 12 months – within that, 8% considered that their practice was unlikely to remain viable.
  • 22% of architectural staff were furloughed – an increase of 8% from April.
  • 1% of architectural staff were made redundant; 1% were released from a ‘zero hours’, temporary or fixed-term contract.
  • 38% of projects had been put on hold since the start of March.

Confidence was certainly at an all-time low. RIBA Executive Director Professional Services, Adrian Dobson said “The current pandemic and economic uncertainty are clearly continuing to impact both architects’ current workloads and their confidence about the future, with the majority expecting their workloads to decrease in coming months.”

A second COVID-19 survey of architects conducted by the institute delved a little deeper into the personal impact of the crisis on architects working within the profession.

These findings revealed the main concerns not just for business but for people, practices and projects:

People

Mental health decline – 40% said their mental health had been affected (a significant increase from 23% in April); 20% felt isolated.

Working location – 74% said they were working entirely from home, a further 10% said they were working mostly from home.

Working from home difficulties – almost a quarter (24%) are caring for others and 13% said they have inadequate equipment.

Reduced income – 56% have reduced personal and/or household income.

Working patterns have changed – 15% said they had been furloughed and 27% said they were working reduced hours. 37% reported finding ‘new and better ways of working’.

Practices

Economic impact – 58% reported fewer new business enquiries, 53% reported a decreased workload and 57% said they were experiencing a cashflow reduction.

Projects

Site closures – 60% said at least one of their project sites had closed.

Widespread project delays – 90% reported project delays, citing parties including clients, contractors, planning officers and building control officers.

Clients responsible for most project cancellations – 48% of decisions to cancel projects were made by the client.

Every cloud has a silver lining

After four months in negative territory, the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index rose to +3 in July, from –17 in June. Could this be the early signs of recovery? Obviously it is too soon to tell at present, but let’s take a look at the facts:

Nearly a third (31%) of practices anticipate a workload increase, 42% expect workload to remain the same and 28% expect a decrease.

In July the Staffing Index also rose by 5 points, with 75% of practices saying they expect the level of permanent staff to remain the same over the next three months and 8% (rising from 4%) anticipating the need to employ more permanent staff. Despite this, 17% still expect their staffing levels to decrease over the next three months.

All sectors returned slightly more positive balance figures. The private housing sector rose significantly to +17 (from -3 in June), the commercial sector rose to -15 (from -32), the community sector to -14 (from -19) and the public sector to -4 (from -12).

While there was increased optimism about workloads over the next three months, 62% of respondents still expect profits to fall over the next year and within that, 7% consider that their practice is unlikely to remain viable.

Industry expert and Head of Research, Analysis and Forecasting at National Building Specification (NBS) said “While these findings might show the first glimpse of positivity we’ve seen for a while – with practices seeing a specific increase in private residential enquiries as home working continues – architects still face a particularly challenging market.

“For some, their current workloads mainly consist of pre-pandemic commissions and the source of future work is uncertain. As the UK enters its first recession in 11 years, we can expect further caution from clients to commit to new projects, and confidence in future workloads may be affected.

“It remains our fundamental priority to support our architects through this difficult time with resources and economic intelligence to help overcome immediate hurdles and build future resilience.”

In summary

To date, 998 thousand people across the globe are reported to have died from coronavirus. This figure cannot be fully trusted as not all Covid-related deaths are directly attributable to the virus. (Many people have died from other conditions, tested positive posthumously and therefore been registered as a covid death.) No less heart-breaking – the true figure, which is likely to be less, may never be known.

Isn’t it strange that a staggering 2.8 million people die EVERY YEAR from obesity and yet we don’t go to such drastic lengths to protect these lives?

About 25,260 excess deaths occurred in Great Britain over winter last year, most were in people of pension age. Cold weather is a major contributor to these deaths, but there are a number of causes. Vulnerable people are dying EVERY YEAR from something as simple as not being able to afford their heating bills. How come the government doesn’t step in here?

Air pollution is the biggest environmental threat to health in the UK, with between 28,000 and 36,000 deaths a year attributed to long-term exposure. There is strong evidence that air pollution causes the development of coronary heart disease, stroke, respiratory disease and lung cancer, and exacerbates asthma.

We need to change the way we think about this virus and fast. Around 7.6 million jobs, or 24% of the UK workforce are at risk because of COVID-19-related restrictions. People with the lowest incomes are the most vulnerable.

Self-destruction is the true enemy. There’s a reason why they call it a depression…

As we move into the next phase of the crisis, it is vital that we are safeguarding lives, but we must also safeguard livelihoods.

 

Work on the highly controversial HS2 officially began last week. Those in favour expect it to create 22,000 jobs in the next few years, whilst objectors claim it could actually displace almost that many jobs.

#HS2 #cost #government #environment #transport #employment

 

In a post-Covid world, is the argument for what has ultimately been labelled “a vanity project” still relevant? Joe Bradbury discusses:

 

Way back in 2016, a survey conducted by the ITV Tonight programme found that:

  • Only 15% feel that HS2 is worth £56bn
  • 58% don’t think it’s a price worth paying
  • 77% of people would prefer that the money was spent in other areas, like the NHS
  • Nearly three-quarters of people thought HS2 would lead to price rises for train tickets
  • 60% said they would not pay more to ride on HS2
  • 7% would be prepared to pay increased prices for the high speed line
  • 80% said they felt sympathy for people who may lose their homes to HS2, even though they may be compensated
  • 11% people thought the high speed rail link would benefit the majority of commuters
  • 23% are not aware that HS2 is being planned

 

That was then. Pre-covid. Pre-Brexit. Pre-global economic downturn. Pre-depression. Imagine where public support is now? The gutter?

 

Do we need it?

At least on the surface, the primary aim of HS2 seems to be to link the north with the south, allowing commuters to broaden the area that they can work in. However, with Covid set to change the way we live and work permanently, with a cultural shift towards home-working now well underway, is this something we even need? Indeed, many employees for companies who have sent all staff home are already starting to question why they had to go in to the office in the first place. Employers who are now struggling thanks to the damage we have inflicted to our economy through misunderstanding and fear are looking at their overheads in an entirely different way.

In response to the news that work was going to begin, Stop HS2 Campaign Manager Joe Rukin said “the case for building HS2 has gone from questionable to completely non-existent. The passenger forecasts invented to justify this gargantuan white elephant started off as being grossly inflated, but now this idea that HS2 is needed because tens of thousands of people, will demand to commute even greater distances for work in the future, are just laughable. We’ve spent 10 years trying to tell tin-eared politicians that working practices will change in the future and drastically reduce the need for travel, and even now it’s happened right in front of their eyes, they refuse to accept it.”

 

 

Can we afford it?

Back in 2015, the project was expected to cost £56 billion. Now, the estimate has almost doubled with a leaked review revealing it could be up to £106 billion. Around £8 billion has already been spent on the purchase of land and property, ground investigation work, technical designs, IT systems, wages and public engagement. Can we really afford such a thing in the depths of what might be the UK’s worst recession and the wider global economic downturn?

Objectors argue no, stating that the £100+ billion being spent on HS2 should be ploughed into improving digital infrastructure in the country as we prepare for a post-Covid 19 way of working and living.

Conservative MP Esther McVey suggests that Plans for the high-speed rail line should be stopped and money ploughed into ensuring all areas of the country have high quality internet connections and no area is left behind.

Ms McVey said “Government must prioritise this new digital infrastructure. Our working and living culture are evolving so fast it has outpaced HS2 and that £100 billion investment would be better placed in IT infrastructure. We need the whole country connected not just small sections of it. We need to be online, not on a train line but online, this pandemic has proved this. We are living in a new virtual sphere and we cannot have a digital divide across the country. I do not want to see a new North-South divide or differences in cities or suburbs through a post code lottery. We must invest in technology now and grasp these opportunities for not only this generation but others to come.”

McVey isn’t alone with her objections as a member of the conservative party, the very party responsible for delivering the project. Dominic Cummings is also an outspoken critic of HS2 and there is now a coalition of around 60 dissenting voices on the Tory backbenches.

It seems that rather than connecting people, HS2 continues to divide.

The environment

This is the most important thing. You can’t make money on a dead planet.

HS2 is the most environmentally destructive project this century, with almost 700 wildlife sites under threat, and HS2 Ltd themselves even admitting it will have a negative impact on carbon emissions for over a century. This is why there are currently hundreds of activists camped out along the HS2 route, fighting to protect nature and it certainly doesn’t look like they will be going away any time soon.

Chris Packham, on behalf of the Rethink HS2 alliance of environmental organisations said “HS2 involves one of the largest deforestation programmes since the First World War, damaging more than 100 ancient woodlands along the planned route, along with dozens of wildlife habitats. If this project gets the go ahead, and I sincerely hope that it doesn’t for so many reasons, you can expect ferocious public opposition to it, and I will be happy to lead that from the environmental perspective.”

Sarah Green, founder of the Colne Valley HS2 Protection Camp added “People need to be made aware of the horrendous impact HS2 will have, especially on water supplies. If people knew what was actually happening, there would be an outcry as the chalk is prone to cracking and fissuring and working around historic landfills is a recipe for disaster. The work HS2 are conducting now must be halted.”

In summary

I always try to keep an open mind, but when it comes to a topic as polarising as HS2, it is impossible to remain on the fence. The sheer turbulence of it all will blow you off!

The most chilling revelation for me throughout lockdown is that we now have a government that does what it wants. The rushed-through coronavirus bill now grants Government powers over its citizens well beyond a reasonable period of what is necessary with this Coronavirus crisis, taking full advantage of the Covid-19 crisis as a means to control citizens with new powers of arrest, detention, quarantine and burials to name but a few.

All protest is squashed, petitions are rejected and even the very act of protesting is an illegal, punishable offence… all in the name of our safety.

The BBC turns a blind eye to genocide in China (who will likely be building HS2 for us) and the violent destruction of migrant camps in favour of turning us against one another in pointless debates about 1m vs. 2m, mask vs. no mask etc.

It seems that now, in 2020 (11 years on from HS2 being proposed), it is far easier to put forward an argument against HS2 than for it. How alarming then, that this doesn’t seem to make a jot of difference. Are we really so powerless? In spite of widespread objection from the British public, members of parliament and even members of Boris Johnson’s own party, the project plows ahead, through fields, pastures, homes, gardens, habitats and nature reserves.

This government does what it wants… and sadly it wants HS2 whether you like it or not!

Perhaps a more relevant question to ask would be this – is this really the kind of behaviour you want from your government?

One thing is certain – construction needs skills and skills mean people

#constuctionindustry #skilledbuilders #employment #redundancies #architects #localauthorities

MMC Magazine Editor Joe Bradbury takes an in-depth look at the issue of redundancy and loss of skills throughout the industry post-Covid crisis. Who is at risk and what must be done? The answers remain elusive and unclear but one thing is certain – construction needs skills and skills mean people.

The scale of the problem

In recent weeks, the sheer scale of the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic has become apparent. Data from the ONS shows the UK’s economy shrank when the crisis hit and we are now feeling the result of this in myriad ways, such as widescale unemployment.

We may be winning the war on the virus, but even the promised holy grail of a vaccine won’t leave us worry-free. Analysis by the Greater London Authority (GLA) suggests unemployment is likely to rise further in the weeks and months to come, with almost 1.1 million workers in the capital alone working in sectors facing the greatest economic risk, such as tourism and hospitality.

Data published by HM Revenue and Customs and collated by the GLA found 1.07 million Londoners have been furloughed – around 12% of the UK total – with many from roles which could be made permanently redundant if the Government does not take further decisive action to protect the sectors most at risk.

In a recent speech, Mayor Sadiq Khan urged government to “target assistance in devastated sectors to prevent an historic rise in unemployment.

“Ministers were clearly too slow to act on the health consequences of Covid-19. We simply can’t afford for the Government to be too slow to act on the huge economic consequences as well.”

When will unemployment spike?

The Bank of England has also warned that UK unemployment will spike at 2.5m by the end of the year, as firms cut jobs due to the shock of Covid-19. In its latest forecasts, the Bank predicts the jobless rate will almost double to 7.5%, and only fall slowly in 2021.

The bank predicts a ‘material’ jump in unemployment, with more than one million jobs expected to be lost in the second half of this year.

They made this statement in the Guardian: “Employment appears to have fallen since the Covid-19 outbreak, although this has been very significantly mitigated by the extensive take-up of support from temporary government schemes.

“Surveys indicate that many workers have already returned to work from furlough, but considerable uncertainty remains about the prospects for employment after those support schemes unwind.”

The deep impact of lockdown restrictions eased slightly in May as some employees returned from furlough and self-employed workers increased their hours. But the true scale of Britain’s jobs crisis won’t be known until the Government’s Job Retention Scheme is phased out in the months ahead.

What this means for construction

In spite of the madness, the construction industry actually recorded its strongest monthly rise in activity for nearly five years as the sector continued to rebound from the lockdown. The sector, which makes up 6% of the economy, has a long recovery ahead after output fell by 40% in March and April. We have a long way to go before output returns to pre-Covid levels, and construction companies are still shedding jobs at one of the fastest rates since the global financial crisis.

This is a tough one, as when times are tough the first thing companies do is tighten their belt and look to make savings when it comes to staffing. However, this tactic is a snake eating its own tail and only serves to exacerbate issues going forward.

New research published by the Federation of Master Builders (FMB) suggests that rather than trimming down, more construction apprenticeships are actually needed to turbocharge economic recovery and drive us out of this slump. The FMB’s report Trading Up looked at the barriers small to medium-sized (SME) employers face to delivering apprenticeships and upskilling.

Key findings revealed that:

  • 68% of builders are either currently training an apprentice or have done so in the past
  • 85% train and recruit 16 to 18-year olds
  • 40% of completed apprentices will stay working for the SME company who trained them for at least three years.

Brian Berry, Chief Executive of the FMB, said “Putting local builders at the heart of apprenticeship development and training will unlock additional high-quality opportunities for young people and help Britain get back on its feet. We need an army of builders to help deliver the new homes that this country desperately needs. They will also upgrade our existing homes to make them more energy efficient and fit for purpose in the years ahead.”

Preserving apprenticeships is obviously just one important measure that must be taken in order to weather the storm, but it will require a multifaceted approach to attract and retain the workforce we sorely need to rise and meet the challenges we face as an industry. Business by its very nature isn’t risk-free and in order to enjoy the benefits of bustling demand we need a strong workforce. They are the life blood of our sector.

Who is at risk of redundancy?

The cross-industry ‘People Survey’ was carried out by Build UK on behalf of the Construction Leadership Council (CLC) at the start of June 2020, to provide a snapshot of how a reduced workload post coronavirus (COVID-19) may affect the construction workforce. It atincipates that over 40% of construction firms anticipate making redundancies in the coming months.

There is anticipated to be a 7.7% reduction in the number of directly employed workers across the industry by September.

In the longer term, 43% of respondents anticipate making redundancies, with up to 20% of their workforce being affected.

There is also expected to be a 26.7% reduction in the number of self-employed and agency workers across the industry by September.

Housebuilders, specialist contractors and contractors are the most significant users of self-employed and agency workers. Whilst housebuilders and specialist contractors anticipate reducing their numbers by just 4% and 11% respectively, Contractors are looking to reduce self-employed and agency workers by 42%. Other sectors most likely to reduce their numbers are Material Suppliers by 54.5% and Consultants by 45.6%.

Combining these figures shows an anticipated reduction in the construction workforce of 9.9% by September.

In summary

Who can we afford to lose, if anybody? Before we do anything, we must make sure we are asking the right questions. If we roll back the clock (if only!) to pre-Brexit, talk of skills shortages and what are we going to do without the immigrant workforce was on everybody’s lips. Could it be that a great many of the redundancies might be the trainees that the industry brought on board in response to the skills shortage? In other words, are we taking steps to survive now that might send us back to square one skills-wise once things level out again? Can we afford to undo such progress?

Trade media also reported extensively on an ageing workforce; could it be that many of the more mature members of our workforce are now being let go or opting to take redundancy? What will the effect of losing these skilled workers have on our ability to train new talent? Don’t we need them to pass the torch when it comes to trade knowledge? So many questions. So few answers! One thing seems certain; we mustn’t be rash in letting our workforce go too soon.

Only by ensuring that our industry has the skills it requires both now and in the future can we hold any hope of success. Let’s push the conversation in the right direction, away from mere pounds and pence. What is the construction industry without people? Nothing.

 

Transforming spaces – repurposing office space to meet housing demand

We find ourselves in the midst of a chronic housing shortage in Britain today. According to the National Housing Federation, there are an estimated 8.4 million people in England are living in an unaffordable, insecure or unsuitable home. The housing crisis was impacting all ages across every part of the country.

Joe Bradbury discusses

Analysis shows that:

  • 6 million people are living in an overcrowded home
  • 5 million are unable to afford their rent or mortgage
  • 5 million are in “hidden households” they cannot afford to move out of, including house shares, adults living with their parents, or people living with an ex-partner
  • 7 million are in unsuitable housing such as older people stuck in homes they cannot get around and families in properties which have no outside space
  • 4 million are in poor quality homes
  • 400,000 are homeless or at risk of homelessness – including people sleeping rough, living in homeless shelters, temporary accommodation or sofa-surfing

It’s deeply distressing that, across England, councils are being forced to leave the people they are trying to help on the streets or drifting from sofa to sofa – all because they cannot find somewhere safe and affordable for them to live. The Homelessness Reduction Act has made some good progress in preventing people from becoming homeless, but it’s worrying to see that it’s being constrained by a chronic lack of housing and cuts to housing benefit.

 

Could converting empty offices into homes be part of the answer?

In short, yes. But as with everything, there are caveats.

Demand for office space in the UK is predicted to drop by as much as 50% as across the board companies realise the cost-saving potential of flexibility post-Covid-19, according to a new report by commercial property specialists Instant Offices.

With 60% of the UK workforce working from home during peak-lockdown and millions of businesses struggling to cover overheads, offices across the country have been left standing empty and rental negotiations have stalled.

Alongside this, at least 320,000 people are homeless in Britain, according to research by the housing charity Shelter.

This amounts to a year-on-year increase of 13,000, a 4% rise, despite government pledges to tackle the crisis. The estimate suggests that nationally one in 200 people are homeless.

Shelter says its figures, which include rough sleepers and people in temporary accommodation, are likely to be an underestimate of the problem as they do not capture people who experience “hidden” homelessness, such as sofa-surfers, and others living insecurely in sheds or cars, for example.

It seems either cruel or incredibly disorganised that so many people are forced onto the streets, whilst at a vacancy rate of 4.5 per cent (57.6 million sq ft of empty space) the amount of unused commercial office space in the UK right now is almost 50 times larger than London’s O2 Arena, which is 1.2 million sq ft.

Workspace experts the Instant Group, said “Covid-19 has shown the world that we can cope with rapid changes to the way we all work, and as more businesses embrace flexibility, we’re going to see a permanent shift in the way an office can meet individual needs.”

If this is the case, will we also see a shift in the way we meet housing demand?

Two sides to every story

Not everybody thinks turning office space into housing is a good idea. Analysis by the Local Government Association earlier this year revealed that nearly one in 10 new homes over the last two years was converted from an office and included no affordable housing or supporting investment in infrastructure such as roads, schools and health services.

This is as a direct result of ministers expanding so-called “permitted development rights” (PDRs) five years ago to enable office buildings to be converted to housing with no need for planning permission, in an attempt to push forward construction of new homes.

Since then, more than 42,000 homes have been converted from offices under the provision in the past three financial years alone according to government figures, whilst the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) posits the actual figure is likely to be closer to 95,000 PDR conversions from 2010 to 2017.

Then, in 2017-18, such conversions helped to push new home construction up to 222,190, a 10-year high. Is this a cause for celebration? Perhaps not.

Over 30% of office-to-residential conversions have been in London — with more in Croydon than any other borough, government data show. Another third are in metropolitan areas, including Manchester, Bradford and Leeds. The rest reside in the more rural counties.

Since 2015, a total of 30,575 housing units in England have been converted from offices to flats without having to go through the planning system.

While this amounts to approximately 8% of new homes nationally, in some parts of the country it is responsible for around two thirds of all new housing.

The Local Government Association asserts that permitted development (which unlike new developments has no requirement to include affordable housing) has led to the potential loss of 7,644 affordable homes over the last two years.

As well as exacerbating the housing crisis, councils are now also warning that office space could dry up as a result, leaving businesses and start-ups without any premises in which to base themselves. How would such an obstacle affect an already fragile economy?

 

The LGA’s Housing spokesman, Cllr Martin Tett commented “Councils want to see more affordable homes built quickly and the conversion of offices into residential flats is one way to deliver much-needed homes.

“However it is vital that councils and local communities have a voice in the planning process. At present, permitted development rules allow developers to bypass local influence and convert offices to flats, and to do so without providing affordable housing and local services and infrastructure such as roads and schools.

“Permitted development is detrimental to the ability of local communities to shape the area they live in.

“Planning is not a barrier to house-building, and councils are approving nine in 10 planning applications. But it is essential that councils, which are answerable to their residents, have an oversight of local developments to ensure they are good quality and help build prosperous places. The resulting loss of office space can risk hampering local plans to grow economies and attract new businesses and jobs to high streets and town centres.”

Croydon is one such place to be feeling the strain of rushed decisions. Known for its ageing office stock, the area has seen thousands of new homes created under permitted development rights. From 2015, the council used its powers to override the PDR provision so that office-to-residential conversions once again needed permission. But plans already rushed through will ultimately result in 2,708 new homes.

In a recent article for the Financial Times on the subject, Paul Scott, Croydon’s council cabinet member responsible for planning and regeneration, said “It’s totally unreasonable, and unprecedented in all other aspects of planning, to be able to build whatever you want. We are seeing units with no windows — we are building the slums of the future in Croydon now.

“We are seeing hundreds of substandard units in what were already fairly poor quality office buildings. To pretend that this is somehow responding positively to the housing crisis is a farce.”

In summary

We need more homes. But we need to avoid sprawl also. Private housing developers are closing in on our green spaces and making a packet, whilst somehow managing not to make a dent on the housing shortage in any meaningful way. With so many people homeless or living in temporary accommodation and this figure on the increase, I would say that we have to start using some of our office stock to meet bustling demand. However, it is clear to see that we need to do this in a smart way.

In my role as editor for Modern Methods of Construction Magazine I have seen the potential that offsite has to offer – not just in terms of new build, but also when it comes to repurposing an old building to make it fit for modern life. We have the technology and the knowhow; it’s in our hands.

Perhaps we need to develop a more healthy relationship with our current planning legislation, instead of seeing it as a barrier to overcome, by hook or by crook. Let’s change it so it works for everyone.

It is clear to see the potential that converting office spaces into homes has to offer 21st century Britain, but without collaboration and a strong desire to create decent homes at an affordable price at the core of our professional values, we run the risk of sleepwalking out of one crisis and into another. Let’s keep the conversation going and get this right, because it isn’t going away.

Please share your thoughts in the comments below.

 

 

What has COVID-19 taught us about our impact on the environment?

Are you a glass-half-empty person, or a glass-half-full? In other words, can you draw any positives from tragedy that might make undergoing the suffering less meaningless? What have we learned about ourselves and one another throughout the coronavirus crisis that might help us forge a path into a brave new world, post-COVID? MMC Editor and buildingspecifier.com contributor discusses:

A rare disaster in the form of pandemic has temporarily brought the world to its knees. Countries have spent the last few months scrabbling to fight an invisible enemy, as the world went in lockdown. The subsequent collapse in activity that has resulted from this is unlike anything experienced in living memory; the word ‘unprecedented’ is bandied about in daily parlance.

The tragic loss of lives aside, economists project global 2020 growth at -6.1 percent… that’s MINUS. Emerging market and developing economies with normal growth levels well above advanced economies are also projected to have negative growth rates of -1.0 percent in 2020, and -2.2 percent if you exclude China. A recent UN study said 81% of the world’s workforce of 3.3 billion people had had their place of work fully or partly closed because of the outbreak.

As unemployment figures are masked with terms such as furlough (how many furloughed staff will have a company to return to, post-lockdown?) we find ourselves in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in the 1930’s.

Whilst we casting worried eyes over our dwindling bank accounts, it can be hard sometimes to see any difference between real life and money. Yet there is.

Without our environment, there would be nothing

According to new research by construction blog Bimhow, the construction sector contributes to 23% of air pollution, 50% of the climatic change, 40% of drinking water pollution, and 50% of landfill wastes globally. In separate research by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), the construction industry accounts for 40% of worldwide energy usage, with estimations that by 2030 emissions from commercial buildings will grow by 1.8%.

As an industry, we are the UK’s largest user of natural resources and the largest producer of waste. Recent figures indicate the construction industry uses around 420 million tonnes of materials each year. From these materials, around 120 million tonnes are waste; that’s almost 60% of the national total. From this waste, it’s estimated that 25 million tonnes ends up in landfill sites.

Over the next 100 years with 2C+ global warming locked in, the very existence of some atoll nations is threatened by rising sea-levels. Limiting warming to 1.5C may restrict sea level rise below 1 metre; yet even at 1.5C warming, regional food security risks are significant. Africa is particularly vulnerable, with significant reduction in staple crop yields in some countries. Between 1.5C-2C increase, mountains lose their glaciers meaning people will lose their water supplies. The entire Indian subcontinent will be fighting for survival. As the glaciers disappear from all but the highest peaks, their runoff will cease to power the massive rivers that deliver vital freshwater to hundreds of millions. Water shortages and famine will be the result, destabilising the entire region. The whole Greenland ice sheet would vanish within 140 years. Miami would disappear, as would most of Manhattan. Central London would be flooded. Bangkok, Bombay and Shanghai would lose most of their area.

No matter what viruses and threats come our way, something must be done about this. Without a healthy environment to live in, there can be no healthy life.

Taking positives from something negative

Throughout the course of the coronavirus pandemic, the media has been a double edged sword. It fills us with fear and loathing, and then throws a curveball our way in the form of a positive news story about clear skies over Tokyo for the first time in decades, dolphins returning to the canals and waterways of Venice and unpolluted skies ample for stargazing. None of this comes as a surprise; the wonders of nature are set free when we get out of its way.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) is an agency of the European Union, whose task is to provide sound, independent information on the environment. The EEA aims to support sustainable development by helping to achieve significant and measurable improvement in Europe’s environment, through the provision of timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information to policymaking agents and the public.

The EEA’s data for March (the height of the pandemic) also showed how concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a pollutant mainly emitted by road transport, have decreased in many Italian cities. For example:

In Milan, average concentrations of NO2 in March were at least 24 % lower than four weeks earlier this year. The average concentration during the week of 16-22 March was 21 % lower than for the same week in 2019.

In Bergamo, there was a constant decline in NO2 pollution throughout March. The average concentration during the week of 16-22 March was 47 % lower than for the same week in 2019.

In Rome, average NO2 concentrations were 26-35 % lower than for the same weeks in 2019.

Similar trends can be seen in other European cities where lockdown measures have been implemented.

In Barcelona, average NO2 levels went down by 40 % from one week to the next. Compared with the same week in 2019, the reduction was 55 %.

In Madrid, average NO2 levels went down by 56 % from one week to the next. Compared with the same week in 2019, the reduction was 41 %.

In Lisbon, average NO2 levels went down by 40 % from one week to the next. Compared with the same week in 2019, the reduction was 51 %.

Exposure to air pollution can lead to adverse health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. A number of health authorities have warned that those citizens with certain pre-existing conditions, such as respiratory illnesses, may have an increased vulnerability to COVID-19. However at present it is not clear whether ongoing exposure to air pollution might worsen the condition of those infected by the virus. Further epidemiological research is needed to address such questions.

What does this mean?

To put it simply, it means that we can make big changes in short periods of time when we pull together for a common cause. It gives me hope for humanity.

Recent research from leading research and advisory company Gartner revealed that 74% CFO’s (Chief Financial Officers) intend to shift some employees to remote work permanently.

The survey of 317 CFOs and Finance leaders on 30th March revealed that 74% will move at least 5% of their previously on-site workforce to permanently remote positions post-COVID 19.

“This data is an example of the lasting impact the current coronavirus crisis will have on the way companies do business,” said Alexander Bant, practice vice president, research for the Gartner Finance Practice. “CFOs, already under pressure to tightly manage costs, clearly sense an opportunity to realize the cost benefits of a remote workforce. In fact, nearly a quarter of respondents said they will move at least 20% of their on-site employees to permanent remote positions.”

With more people working remotely, could we be witnessing the beginning of the end of 2 to 3 hour commutes in standstill traffic to squeeze into office buildings in the city centre? Could we reduce vehicle emission and repurpose some office buildings to help tackle other pressing issues facing society, such as the housing crisis? It is certainly food for thought… for the glass-half-full person.

In conclusion

Coronavirus has raised countless questions, some which might never be answered. It is a horrible fact of life that we all have to live with now. Perhaps, as we begin to regain control of the situation, we should draw as many positives as we can from the harsh lessons we have learned so that it wasn’t all in vain. We owe it to those who have lost their lives and their loved ones to it.

It’s time to shift our perspective back to the environment and make sure we are building a world in which people can live and thrive. It is our duty, as construction industry professionals, to build a better future. Let’s get it right.

It would probably be easier to list the things that haven’t affected by Coronavirus. This crisis has touched us all, pressing pause on progress overall. Now, small and medium-sized construction building companies need urgent and immediate additional support from the Government to prevent wide-scale insolvencies and job losses, according to industry experts. Buildingspecifier’s Joe Bradbury investigates:

 

How long will this go on?

 

“At this point, the answer to this is anyone’s guess. In Boris Johnson’s opening statement from yesterday’s press conference on coronavirus, the PM stated “I want to begin by thanking everyone, by thanking you, in the media, and also thanking everyone for the huge efforts that the country is making to comply with the advice that we’ve been given.

 

“We’re asking such a huge amount, asking students to put their education on hold, we’re asking people not to socialise in the normal way, and already we can see the impact that this is having on the UK economy and on business, on great, great companies.

 

“It’s vital that we in Government stand behind them when what we are asking everyone to do is so crucial for saving literally thousands of lives by defeating this virus.

 

“I am conscious as the days have gone by that people will want to know how long we are expecting them to keep it up and I wanted to try to say something about how I see the timescale of this campaign and where we’re going and what we need to do.

 

“I do think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks.”

 

Builders have reported the following impacts on their firms:

 

  • Three-quarters (76%) say projects have been delayed or cancelled;
  • Just under two-thirds (64%) have seen a drop in enquiries;
  • Almost all (98%) estimate that one quarter (25%) or fewer of their staff can work from home; and
  • Almost one in ten (8%) have already had to make redundancies, representing 58 individuals now without jobs.

 

The Federation of Master Builders is calling on the Government to:

 

  • Provide a three month tax holiday on VAT, PAYE and CIS payments. The Government must also delay the implementation of Reverse Charge VAT by one year;
  • Extend the £25,000 cash grant currently only provided to retail and hospitality to construction firms;
  • Provide the equivalent rate of Statutory Sick Pay to the self-employed who fill 37% of industry jobs;
  • Ensure that the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme is quick and easy to use, and is launched as soon as possible.

 

The FMB is also calling on the Government to work with the CITB to help employers keep their apprentices; provide clarification to builders and householders whether social distancing means all domestic building work must stop even if all concerned are well; and start to issue construction industry-specific guidance.

 

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Brian Berry, Chief Executive of the FMB, said “The Government has overlooked the market in which small builders operate. Builders working in the domestic sector simply cannot work from home and are already feeling the impact of the pandemic as a result. The Government must intervene as a matter of urgency if small building companies are to protect their workforces, avoid further job losses, and prevent building companies going to the wall.”

 

“We musn’t allow a repeat of the 2008 recession when one in three SME construction firms left the industry. Building new homes and levelling-up infrastructure will be key to rebuilding our economy after the virus has passed, and the Government will need an army of builders in place to deliver that.”

 

“The FMB is supporting its 7,500 members during this difficult time, through its dedicated helplines, tailored communication and guidance, and insurance services. We are also working closely with the Construction Leadership Council (CLC) as well as other industry bodies to ensure the industry is united through this crisis. I’m calling on the Government to match our efforts and ramp up their support for builders immediately.”

 

Richard Beresford, chief executive of the National Federation of Builders, added “The situation is extremely serious, especially for the elderly, people with underlying health conditions, pregnant parents or very young children. Government and the construction sector needs to also recognise the risk of mass absence from construction sites and the potential impact of delayed payment resulting in the need to lay staff off or make redundancies. A pragmatic and dynamic risk based approach, supported by government is needed.

 

NFB is working hard to ensure its members are supported with the relevant guidance on the coronavirus, for example on statutory sick pay, commercial legal advice on construction contracts and general business advice of mitigating the risk for essential construction work.”

 

So far, several NFB members have reported issues of absence through self-isolation. However, with government advice and guidance pointing to a substantial increase on the current 1,500 cases, it is clear that things will change rapidly in the coming days and weeks.

 

In summary

What is happening now is unprecedented. Brexit and the election, once permanently on everybody’s lips have been replaced with a chronic sense of fear and uncertainty. We don’t know how this will affect construction over the coming weeks and months, but we do know that the impact will be profound. In order to survive, we will need to put our differences aside, let go of old rivalries and work collectively as an industry. It seems a strange irony to end on at a time where social distancing is being actively encouraged, but we need to pull together, now more than ever. Future success may very well depend upon i

Buildingspecifier.com’s Joe Bradbury discusses the topic on everyone’s lips at present – flooding.

“It’s a bit black over Bill’s mothers” is an understatement. Apparently, according to the Met, England has received 144% of the average February rainfall this month, and as a resident of Tamworth, a town in the Midlands that two rivers pass through, I’m inclined to agree. Record river levels have been broken on the Colne, Ribble, Calder, Aire, Trent, Severn (which passes through Tamworth), Wye, Lugg, and Derwent.

Even our local theme park Drayton Manor is currently closed, due to their lake bursting its banks. Make no mistake, Britain is waterlogged. We must not underestimate the destructive power and danger of flooding. Not in this day and age.

Global warming

Did you know, the world’s population is currently consuming the equivalent of 1.6 planets resources a year? The Global Footprint Network estimates that if we continue to consume at current rates we’ll blow the global carbon budget and lock in more than 2C of global warming in approximately 17 years.

 

Over the next 100 years with 2C+ global warming locked in, the very existence of some atoll nations is threatened by rising sea-levels. Limiting warming to 1.5C may restrict sea level rise below 1 metre; yet even at 1.5C warming, regional food security risks are significant. Africa is particularly vulnerable, with significant reduction in staple crop yields in some countries. Between 1.5C-2C increase, mountains lose their glaciers meaning people will lose their water supplies. The entire Indian subcontinent will be fighting for survival. As the glaciers disappear from all but the highest peaks, their runoff will cease to power the massive rivers that deliver vital freshwater to hundreds of millions. Water shortages and famine will be the result, destabilising the entire region. The whole Greenland ice sheet would vanish within 140 years. Miami would disappear, as would most of Manhattan. Central London would be flooded. Bangkok, Bombay and Shanghai would lose most of their area.

 

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Lack of awareness

A recent YouGov research identified an alarming general lack of flood risk knowledge across the UK.

Ten years since the devastating summer floods of 2007, which saw over 48,000 homes affected by flooding, it seems the UK population is still failing to take adequate steps to understand whether their homes are at risk of flooding, with more than half (53%) of respondents to the infamous survey confirming they have never checked whether their homes’ in an area officially considered to be at risk of flooding.

This actually increases to 63% when specifically asking people in Scotland and higher again, 75%, when questioning people in Northern Ireland.

In addition, when asked what their biggest concern would be if they were to find out their home is located in an ‘at risk’ area, 31% said the potential for loss of damage to personal possessions was their main worry.

It was clear that those surveyed felt that the likes of construction companies, local councils, government and environmental authorities could be doing more to raise awareness and manage defence against flooding with 35% saying their confidence is about the same as it was in 2007. The online survey highlighted that consumer knowledge of how to check whether a property is considered at risk from flooding was limited; 39% said that checking online via Google or other search engines would be their first port of call, followed by asking the Environment Agency (25%) and then asking their local council (13%).

The same number of people also (13%) also stated that they would not know where to turn for this information at all.

Should we build houses or an ark?

An article in the Guardian this week revealed that more than 11,000 new homes are planned to be built on land at the highest risk of flooding in the regions battered by the worst winter storms in a generation.

The article stated that “an analysis of planning documents reveals that 11,410 new homes have been planned for land the government considers high-risk in the seven English counties where thousands of properties have been devastated by flooding since November.”

Greenpeace’s journalism project Unearthed and the Guardian conducted a joint analysis of housebuilding plans for the next five years in those areas already affected.

Unearthed’s coverage noted that “parts of the West Midlands have been devastated by the resulting floods. Whole areas of Shrewsbury were left underwater, with villages and towns affected all along the Welsh border.

“Local plans for Worcester, Shropshire and Herefordshire councils, which were badly affected, show they are planning for 1,224 homes to be built over the next five years in medium and high-risk flood areas.

“In Herefordshire alone, 325 homes are set to be built in flood-prone areas. Some of this land has already been left under water by Storm Dennis and other new developments had caused problems downstream for older homes that had never flooded before.”

 John Harrington, the council’s cabinet member for infrastructure, described the government’s housing policy as “completely and utterly flawed” and that it was forcing local authorities to approve “idiotic” developments on floodplains so they can meet demands from Whitehall.

“Central government just say ‘There’s a housing target, now go do it’. It’s really quite stupid. It’s devolving responsibility without giving the authority any power or money to deal with the situation. It is absolutely unacceptable.”

In summary

When it comes to dealing with flooding, planning ahead really is the best policy and knowing whether your property is at risk from flooding will ensure that you are better prepared.

After seeing first-hand the impact of the flooding in and around the Midland’s alone, it is clear that the growing threat from more extreme weather events means we must reassure ourselves, and those communities at risk, that our defences, our modelling and our future plans are robust… So are they? Let’s take a look.

 

As building specifiers, I ask you; is building on flood plains a good idea? Let us know in the comments below.