UK HVAC & HEAT PUMP SKILLS SHORTAGE – WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Rinnai’s Tony Gittings analyses the advent of a shortage of skilled labour in the HVAC industry and specifically in heat pump installation, as well as the wider energy industry. The effect of a rising skills shortage on large infrastructure projects and national NetZero objectives may take a heavy toll.

A national skills shortage in the HVAC, heat pump installation and wider UK energy industry is a growing issue that needs close attention as it could have a very serious impact on NetZero objectives. Internal and external issues impacting the drive to carbon neutrality are usually given media and government attention in priority to the more mundane topic of training the next generation of skilled installers and contractors. One area directly related is the shortage of training and experienced heat pump installers and engineers.

The skills shortage affects two key areas that are vital components of the drive towards UK carbon neutrality. Progress in domestic and commercial heat pump installations as well as large infrastructure projects is being negatively influenced by a lack of trained professionals.

However, the number of qualified heat pump engineers has increased from just 3,000 in 2022 to 7,800 in 2023. In the first 9 months of 2024 a further 7,000 had completed a recognised qualification. For the UK to realise NetZero objectives it is estimated by the UK Heat Pump Association that a total of 33,700 fully approved heat pump engineers is required – with at least 27,000 needed for 2028.

Despite the rise in UK heat pump installers further problems relating to skills being unused due to a lack of domestic demand is apparent. In a recent article, Charlotte Lee, chief executive of the Heat Pump Association, said

“more people are training to become heat pump installers’ but warned that increased consumer demand is needed “to encourage trained individuals to become active in the workforce”.

“Interest in the training is growing. However, there is a gap between the number of trained individuals and active heat pump installers working in the market with around 39 per cent of those who complete a training course currently not going on to install heat pumps.”

Additional factors that have influenced heat pump workforce size projections include poor government support, retirement and senior heating engineers being reluctant to retrain. There are many obstacles in attracting qualified UK heat pump engineers and in the heat pump market that makes for installations being problematic.

Suspending or even cancelling large infrastructural projects due to a lack of recognised skilled labour is arguably a bigger challenge than attracting heat pump engineers.  Huge electrical grid upgrade projects face being postponed due to a gap in skilled workers able to carry out required tasks. There are numerous projects across the UK that centre on upgrading the electrical transmission grid.

To satisfy future electrical supply and demand the UK National Grid has announced plans for the “Great Grid Upgrade.” The national grid requires adapting due to a transition away from fossil fuels through electrification. The current UK grid was designed to transport coal fired energy generated from geographically positioned power stations.

The total cost of the upgrade is thought to be around £16 Billion (Fund Calibre, Yardley, 2024) and will include grid connections to offshore wind and rural solar installations that allows for the easy transfer of renewable power to all corners of Britain.

Further electrical grid connections and upgrade projects are being pursued that will also aid in the access of renewable energy to the UK electrical grid resulting in lower customer costs. The UK and Denmark have collaborated in constructing a link – the Viking Line’ – that stretches for 475 miles joining Lincolnshire and southern Jutland.

The Viking Link required £1.7 billion of investment and is capable of powering 2.5 million UK households. National Grid estimate that the new connection will result in £500 millions of savings for UK customers in its first 10 years by enabling a clear path of trade that compliments seasonal demand and price between the two countries. (all info available at National Grid website).

The UK and Netherlands governments have also announced plans to construct a submarine interconnection that will allow both countries to transfer and trade clean offshore wind generated electricity. The Lion Link will produce 1.8GW of energy – enough to power 2.5 million homes and is due to be operational around 2030. (Info available at National grid website)

Scottish Power will also upgrade their transmission network over the next 10 years costing £5.4 billion. These upgrades will contribute 80-85GW of clean renewable electricity to the British grid.

The UK Government is committed to decarbonising the UK electrical grid by 2030, hence the huge levels of labour and financial investment. For all this work to be completed a well-motivated and professional workforce is essential.

An article in green energy and environment reveals the gaps in skills and low morale inside the UK electrical sector. A workforce survey carried out by the public and private sector trade union Prospect demonstrates the impression held by industry professionals.

According to feedback from recipients 82% of workers inside the electrical sector believe staffing levels are too low, whilst 69% believe there is a tangible skills shortage. Ecological website Environmental Journal included the following quote from their 2024 article on the same topic.

‘Upgrading the UK’s electricity networks must be a national priority. However, the much-needed infrastructure rollout described in this report will not happen without a skilled workforce to plan, build, operate and maintain it,’ said Sue Ferns, Senior Deputy General Secretary of Prospect.

For the UK to encourage domestic and commercial heat pump installation as well as complete large and meaningful infrastructure jobs, a well-motivated and professional workforce must be in place. Without a skilled selection of workers, the UK will find progress in achieving NetZero targets substantially harder and the switch away from fossil fuels much more difficult. Training a new generation of electrical and heating engineers is integral to creating growth in a carbon reduced society.

Rinnai will continue to observe UK and international energy news movement and report any information that could impact energy options or appliances.  Rinnai is keen on providing all customers with a wealth of knowledge that encourages better, more informed, decision making.

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