Mayor of London First past the post with lowest ever share of vote

Mayor of London wins with lowest ever share of vote following switch to First Past the Post

Campaigners warn the move to the First Past the Post system has also seen Police and Crime Commissioners and a mayor elected on as low as a third of the vote

Sadiq Khan has been re-elected as the Mayor of London with the smallest mandate since the office was created 24 years ago, analysis from the Electoral Reform Society shows.

The Labour politician won 43.8% of the vote on Thursday, which was enough to secure him a third term under the new First Past the Post system. However, the result means that he is the mayor returning to City Hall with the lowest level of support among Londoners who voted when compared to results under the previous electoral system.

All prior London mayoral elections used the Supplementary Vote (SV) system, which allows voters to indicate a first and second preference for two candidates. Under SV, if no candidate gets over 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates continue to a runoff where second preference votes from eliminated candidates are allocated – ensuring winning candidates have a broad base of support.

Analysis by the Electoral Reform Society shows that after the first and second preference votes of previous winning candidates are taken into account, Sadiq Khan’s current mandate is lower than any previous winner elected under SV. The mayor with lowest vote share under SV was Ken Livingstone, who received 44.4% of votes from voters giving him either their first preference vote or a transferred second preference vote in 2004.

Vote share of London Mayoral winners after first and second preferences are counted [1]:

• 43.8% Sadiq Khan – 2024 (FPTP system used – no second preferences)
• 44.4% Ken Livingstone – 2004
• 45.3% Ken Livingstone – 2000
• 47.6 Sadiq Khan – 2021
• 47.8 Boris Johnson – 2012
• 48.4% Boris Johnson 2008
• 50.4% Sadiq Khan – 2016

Elsewhere, the switch to First Past the Post has seen Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) and an elected mayor win on as low as or just over a third of the vote.

Analysis by the Electoral Reform Society showed that in the 2021 elections, where the Supplementary Vote was used, no winning PCC or mayor received less than 40% of the vote [2].

Reduced mandates – PPC and mayoral results:

• In Wiltshire, Conservative Philip Wilkinson was returned as PCC with just 31.0% of the vote.
• In Avon and Somerset Labour’s Clare Moody won the PCC role from the Conservatives on less than a third (32.3%) of the vote
• In Gloucestershire the Conservative Chris Nelson was re-elected as PCC with 33.1% of the vote.
• In West Mercia the Conservative John Campion was re-elected as PCC with 34.3% of the vote.
• In Norfolk Labour’s Sarah Taylor beat the Conservative incumbent to become PCC on just 35.2% of the vote.
• In the York and North Yorkshire mayoral race Labour’s David Skaith won on just 35.1% of the vote.

Thursday’s elections were the first time many mayoral and PCC elections used the First Past the Post system instead of the preferential Supplementary Vote (SV).

Darren Hughes, Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said: 

“What we are seeing at these elections is the bar being lowered for politicians while being raised for voters. The move to First Past the Post has lowered the bar for politicians to get elected by taking choice away from voters. The result is we have seen a Mayor of London elected with the smallest mandate ever as well as PCCs and a mayor win their races on around a third of the vote.

“This is bad for voters, who now have mayors and PCCs the majority didn’t vote for; it is bad for elected politicians who have to do their jobs with less backing for their policies; and it is bad for trust in democracy.

“At the same time, we are seeing the bar to voting being raised for voters as this was the first time millions had to show ID to cast their ballot. We know that voter ID has already prevented at least 14,000 people [3] from voting at last year’s local elections and this year we have again heard of voters – including a decorated ex-serviceman [4] – being barred from exercising their fundamental democratic right due to not having an accepted form of ID.

“Our politics is headed in the wrong direction when we are making it harder for people to vote but easier for politicians to get elected by reducing voter choice at the ballot box. We need to set our democracy on a better course by scraping voter ID and improving access to voting, but also by moving to proportional and preferential voting systems that better represent how people voted.”

Thursday’s local elections also saw First Past the Post producing a host of disproportionate results in councils, with some parties picking up as much as 90% of the available seats on less than half of the vote share.

Analysis by the Electoral Reform Society has identified a series of results where voter choices have been ‘distorted’ by England’s winner-takes-all First Past the Post system. Full stats available on request.

Warped results – ERS analysis:

• In Watford the Liberal Democrats took a whopping 91.7% of the seats up for election with just 48.2% of the vote. Labour came second winning 8.3% of the seats on 29.1% of the vote, and the Conservatives received no seats for their 15.5% of the vote
• In Ipswich Labour gained the vast majority of the seats up for election (81%) despite securing just 45.3% of the votes cast. The Conservatives received just 12.5% of the seats for their 29.6% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Greens received no seats despite winning 11.3% of the vote, while the Lib Dems secured 6.3% of the seats with 11.1% of the votes
• In Broxbourne, the Conservatives swept up 90% of the seats up for election on just over half the vote (50.5%), while Labour received just 10% of the seats for its 30.5% of the vote. The third largest party, the Greens on 9.8% of the vote, received no seats.
• In Sunderland Labour picked up 72% of the seats up for election on just 45.5% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats’ 15.4% of the vote yielded them 16% of the seats, but Reform received no seats for their 14.5% of the vote.
• In Winchester the Lib Dems gained 78.6% of the seats up for election, with just 47.7% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives, who won just 14.3% of the seats after winning 31.3% of the vote.

Dr Jess Garland, Director of Research and Policy for the Electoral Reform Society, said: 

“These local elections have again seen a raft of highly disproportionate results under First Past the Post, leading to council chambers that don’t accurately reflect voters’ choices. In some cases, parties have taken over 90% of the seats on less than half the vote, while other parties received no seats despite winning sizable vote shares.

“There is a clear alternative to the unfair results we have seen in England. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland use a fairer proportional voting system [5], avoiding the distorted and random results produced by First Past the Post. 

“Proportional representation would mean fairer results at local elections and would create council chambers that better reflect the way people voted.”