Energetic Fruit!

Health and wellness company Hain Celestial plans to boost the production of electricity from fruit waste at its Histon facility in Cambridgeshire in the UK.

Hain Celestial has invested in upgrading its anaerobic digestion (AD) plant at the facility to more than double the energy produced from waste fruit.

The investment will boost the total green energy generation onsite to 25% of the facility’s total electricity requirements, Hain Celestial noted.

The Histon facility manufactures several Hain Celestial brands, such as Hartley’s jams and jellies, Robertson’s, Frank Cooper’s, and Rose’s marmalades, and Clarks maple syrup.

The initiative is part of Hain’s Global Impact Strategy and will drive its goal to reduce GHG emissions by 42% across its global facilities by 2030.

Anaerobic Digestion Plant

The anaerobic digestion plant processes fruit waste to create biogas, which, in turn, is used to generate electricity via a combined heat and power (CHP) unit.

Benjamin Jeffery, sustainability lead at Hain Celestial, stated, “After seeing the initial positive results and improvements, we are delighted to be installing a second combined heat and power (CHP) system to generate even more sustainably sourced electricity on-site.”

The heat is used to produce hot water on site, creating a ‘closed loop’ energy system with fruit at its core.

‘A Significant Step’

“Histon represents a significant step forward in our commitment to reduce our environmental impact and enhance sustainability across our global operations,” said Chris Jenkins, global head of impact at Hain Celestial.

“Our investment in decarbonisation technologies, including anaerobic digestion, serves as a prime example of our commitment to environmentally sound business practices as we leverage innovative solutions to help power a healthier planet and healthier people,” he added.

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What Labour’s Manifesto says for the Sector

  

As the Labour landslide continues to show the country’s dissatisfaction with the outgoing governments policies and perhaps personalities, here is a refresher on what is promised, I wonder if anyone will be betting on these!

 

  • Mandatory housebuilding targets for local authorities
  • Build 1.5 million new homes over a five-year period
  • Planned new towns with a minimum of 40% of affordable housing, using design codes
  • 150,000 social and affordable homes a year
  • ‘Freedom to Buy’ policy to get 80,000 people on to the housing ladder by making the government’s existing mortgage guarantee scheme permanent
  • ‘First Dibs’ policy to give local people first refusal on homes in new development

 

  • Agreed design standards for “gentle urban development”.
  • Require combined and mayoral Authorities to strategically plan for housing growth in their areas.
  • Combined authorities to receive new planning powers along with new freedoms and flexibilities to make better use of grant funding
  • Planning passports for developers which meet design standards, allowing easier brownfield development
  • Create new ‘grey belt’ land class for poor quality areas of the green belt with requirement for at least 50% affordable housing
  • Reform planning system for onshore wind to allow more projects to go ahead
  • Hire 300 more planning officers, paid for by increasing stamp duty on homes purchased by non-UK residents by 1%
  • “Tough action” to ensure planning authorities have up-to-date local plans
  • Strengthen presumption in favour of sustainable development

 

  • Independent inquiry into HS2 to look into how future projects can avoid cost overruns
  • Fully committed to Northern Powerhouse Rail
  • Merge the National Infrastructure Commission and Infrastructure and Projects Authority into a new body called National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA), which would have new powers.
  • Designate prisons as ‘nationally significant’ projects in an effort to deliver 14,000 additional places by 2030

 

  • Revamped apprenticeship levy to fund specialist training colleges
  • Firms can use up to half of apprenticeships funds to train existing staff or pay for pre-apprenticeship training
  • New law aiming to cut immigration by forcing government departments to draw up skills improvement plans in high migration sectors including construction

 

  • £15bn on green investment a year (£4.7bn of which is new money)
  • Upgrade five million homes to an EPC C rating over the course of the parliament
  • Decarbonise UK power by 2030 under new body, Great British Energy
  • Targets for faster approvals on renewable projects
  • Double onshore wind, triple solar and quadruple offshore wind by 2030
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Ideal Heating Commercial apprentice wins ICOM Apprentice of the Year Award

Ideal Heating Commercial is delighted to announced that one its apprentices, Emily Wright, has won the prestigious Industrial & Commercial Heating Equipment Association ICOM Apprentice of the Year Award 2024.  This is the second consecutive year the award has been handed to an Ideal Heating apprentice.

 

Emily is currently three years in to an Engineering Design and Draughtsperson Apprenticeship Standard (NVQ), which she is undertaking alongside a Higher National Certificate (HNC) Level 4 in Mechanical Engineering.

 

Like many young people, especially women, engineering had never been put forward as a career option for Emily at school.  Ironically, deferring university for a year and taking a job as a PE Teaching Assistant in a secondary school, the school’s career advisor introduced her to the idea of working in engineering.

“Engineering had never been a suggested option to me” says Emily, “and I had no idea how broad the industry was. After researching into different engineering job roles and the variety of engineering fields, I developed an interest in the innovative and ever-evolving nature of Design Engineering.”

 

Emily makes no bones about the challenges involved:

“With completing my apprenticeship qualification and completing work for Ideal Heating, it’s intense – managing deadlines and balancing the workload can be challenging. But I am able to effectively manage my own workload and my managers trust me to set my own deadlines with the confidence that I will deliver on-time.”

 

Commenting on Emily’s award win, Ideal Heating Senior Design Engineer Chris Roberts said:

“Emily thoroughly deserves this award not only due to her work ethic and her inquisitive attitude towards engineering and learning, but she has been a true pleasure to mentor. I have never had to chase Emily for any work deadlines, and she listens with open ears and an open mind.

“Having not come from an engineering background she has worked very hard to learn her craft and has grown, not only as a Design Engineer, but also as a person. I have always pushed her boundaries of learning and fears, she has responded to this by stepping up to the challenges set and exceeding them.

 

As part of her learning experience Emily has spent time in other departments within the business from procurement, engineering changes and industrial engineering. Emily has thrived in each department with many compliments following her as she leaves. She is now using knowledge gained in these areas in her everyday work and passing some of this knowledge on to her colleagues. Emily has become an integral part of the Design team and will be able utilise her skills in both the combustion and heat pump sides of the business.”

 

Ideal Heating delivers commercial heating solutions that are at the forefront of technology and developed in line with the latest market trends and legislation. For more information visit idealcommercialboilers.com

 

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Scottish MD Calls on Election Candidates to Focus on Construction

MD of Dougall Baillie Associates calls on election candidates to focus on construction industry for innovation, sustainability and economic prosperity

 

As the UK General Election looms closer, the boss of one of the largest independent engineering consultancy firms in Scotland has made an urgent appeal to candidates of all parties to prioritise a number of key areas vital to the construction industry.

 

The plea by Fergus Adams, Managing Director of East Kilbride-based Dougall Baillie Associates (DBA), comes as the UK construction sector faces a wealth of challenges and remains impacted by rising costs of both materials and labour.

 

And, though longer-term prospects show some grounds for optimism, construction output fell again at the start of the year, according to the Office for National Statistics, with eight out of the nine components of the industry decreasing. Private commercial new work was down by 4%.

 

The sector’s importance was emphasised when it proved to be a rare success story throughout the pandemic, when many other sectors closed down. Figures from 2022 show that it contributed 7% of GDP and employed 9% of the entire UK workforce, according to the RICS.

 

Mr Adams said that infrastructure investment was one of the most important keys to a brighter future for the sector. He urged politicians to commit to sustained and strategic investment in UK-wide infrastructure projects, enhancing transport, energy, and digital networks to drive economic growth.

The National Infrastructure and Construction Pipeline, which relates to primarily to England, includes £379 billion of planned investment, £164 billion of which is planned for 2024/25, according to Government figures.

He added that it was vital to enhance funding for training programmes and apprenticeships to address the skills shortage. He said:

“As well as a pipeline of work, we need a pipeline of people coming through with the necessary skills to take us through an era of unprecedented transition.”

On sustainability, Mr Adams said that client demand and environmental regulation had already driven a revolution in the ways of working in the sector, although affordability was still a challenge for firms keen to adopt sustainable practices.

He said:

“Our next political leaders must promote green building practices and renewable energy integration, as well as incentivising sustainable construction methods to meet climate goals and reduce carbon footprints.”

He pointed out that regulatory stability was a core requirement for a successful industry and said that politicians should aim to provide a stable and clear regulatory framework to facilitate long-term planning and investment, rather than introducing short-term measures to suit parliamentary timescales.

With rising populations and an ageing housing stock across many parts of the UK, Mr Adams said that it was hardly surprising that many local authorities were declaring housing emergencies

He said:

“It is incumbent on whichever party comes into power after the 4th of July to address the housing crisis by supporting policies that accelerate the delivery of affordable homes and streamline planning processes. Builders are ready to build if the conditions prevail that allow them to.”

 

Mr Adams, whose firm employs 41 people and works on major projects, said that focusing on these priorities would bolster the construction industry and foster innovation, sustainability, and economic prosperity.

 

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RENOVATIONS: Insuring Against the Risks

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University of Tokyo Develops new Device for measuring CO2

A new device can measure carbon dioxide captured in concrete more simply and in a third of the time of current methods. Researchers at the University of Tokyo worked with engineers in industry to create the boxlike device called the concrete thermal gravimetry and gas analyzer. The device heats concrete samples to almost 1,000 degrees Celsius, causing the CO2 within to be released so it can be measured. Compared to the current technique, which involves a time-consuming and complicated process of crushing concrete samples into powder for sampling, this new method is simpler, more accurate and user-friendly. The researchers hope it will contribute to CO2 trading in the future, as the concrete and cement industry work towards offsetting their emissions as part of global targets to manage greenhouse gases.

Concrete is everywhere. We live in it, walk on it, even make movies and write songs about it. Ubiquitous in modern life and even way back in ancient Rome, this sturdy and durable material is a staple for construction projects around the world. But, it is a mixed bag. On the one hand, the process of making concrete and one of its key ingredients, cement, emits a considerable amount of greenhouse gases. It is estimated that 5-8% of all CO2 emissions from human activities to date are from cement production alone. However, concrete can now be used to store CO2, through methods of carbon capture, utilization and storage.

Achieving “net zero,” whereby the amount of CO2 taken out of the atmosphere is equal to the amount released, has become a cornerstone of international policies to tackle global warming. But to do this, we need to know what creates greenhouse gases and at what levels, and how much can be removed through different techniques.

Until now, finding out how much CO2 has been successfully captured in concrete was an extensive process. A cylinder block, about 10 centimeters in diameter and 20 cm high, would be taken and crushed in a way that it couldn’t react with the air (which would affect the results). Then a complicated and long process followed to turn it into a fine, uniform powder from which a small sample was taken for chemical analysis.

A new device, developed by researchers at the University of Tokyo with engineers in industry, can skip this time-consuming process. “We developed a new machine which can measure how much CO2 is fixed in concrete or cementitious material without having to crush it,” said Professor Ippei Maruyama from the Department of Architecture at the University of Tokyo Graduate School of Engineering. “Until now, there wasn’t a simple method to measure the amount of CO2 fixed in concrete, but with this device, we can shorten the time it takes to measure CO2 and increase the accuracy of the measurement.”

A specimen block is placed inside the device and then heated to 980 degrees Celsius. As the block heats up, gases including CO2 are released from the block, which can then be measured. This new process takes about one-third of the time of current methods, limiting the time the concrete can react with the air. Results showed that an accurate measurement could be taken even when CO2 was not uniformly distributed within the block.

Researchers at the University of Tokyo envisioned the concept and parts required for the device, while engineers at Rigaku Corp. then developed it. It was then verified by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Taiheiyo Consultants Co., Ltd.

“This device requires a suitably large space and special safety considerations, so for now, there are some limitations to its application,” said Maruyama. “However, after further tests, we hope to make this device commercially available, so that it can contribute to sound emissions trading in the concrete sector and support global efforts to reach carbon neutrality.”

Reference: Maruyama I, Noritake K, Hosoi Y, Takahashi H. Development of a large-scale thermogravimetry and gas analyzer for determining carbon in concrete. ACT.

 

Source: Technology Networks

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Offsite Construction: An International Perspective from the U.S.

Building wall panels on an assemblyline speeds construction.

Photo credit: Jegruti Rekhi

 

The United States is grappling with a housing crisis driven partially by rising construction costs, including higher costs for labor and materials and a growing disparity between housing supply and demand. To keep housing affordable, the nation needs to increase its supply of homes to meet the current demand. One approach to building new homes rapidly is to build them offsite. HUD historically has sought to resolve obstacles preventing large-scale housing production, including its 1969 demonstration Operation Breakthrough (OB), an ambitious program aimed at increasing the production of quality housing for all income groups.

Operation Breakthrough’s core mission was to pave the way for innovative systems of housing production, financing, marketing, management, and land use. Although the program ended prematurely, it contributed to the development of the HUD Code for manufactured homes. It also succeeded in demonstrating methods that could increase production of quality affordable units, serving as a model for housing production in other countries for decades. Three nations in particular — the United Kingdom (U.K.), Sweden, and Japan — have successfully implemented offsite construction methods similar to those envisioned through Operation Breakthrough. In 2023, HUD sponsored a comparative study of these countries to understand how the federal government and other stakeholders can facilitate the more efficient offsite production of homes.

During the study, a team of industry stakeholders, researchers, and HUD representatives visited each country to engage with industry and government representatives. Jagruti Rekhi (Japan and U.K.) and Mark Reardon (Sweden) represented the Affordable Housing Research and Technology Division in HUD’s Office of Policy Development and Research. All three countries needed to rely on innovation to address the rising demand for housing. Although labor shortages, regulatory hurdles, and housing deficits have significantly affected the housing industry in these nations, each country has leveraged the efficiency of factory-built housing to increase the number of homes built while also improving safety and reducing the environmental impact of home construction.

In 1964, Sweden introduced the Million Homes Programme, which aimed to construct 1 million high-quality homes within 10 years, a goal it accomplished in 1974 by relying heavily on prefabricated construction. In 2016, Sweden invested more than 11.1 billion SEK, or roughly US$1 billion, into constructing and renovating public housing. Complementing this investment was the Swedish parliament’s adoption of the Policy for Designed Living Environment in 2018, which set national objectives for using architecture and design to create a sustainable, equitable, and less segregated society in which everyone has the opportunity to influence the shared environment.

During the group visit to Sweden, the delegation traveled to Skellefteå and Bygdsiljum to learn about Sweden’s commitment to minimizing environmental disruption through adaptive reuse and innovation as well as sustainable forestry through a forest-to-city value chain, including the use of mass timber, or engineered wood — a lightweight and strong material that can support buildings of nine or more stories. At Piteå, the delegation viewed Swedish factories that employ panelized, volumetric modular systems to construct affordable units at scale. In Stockholm, the group learned how mass timber allows developers to expand existing buildings by adding wood structures on top of them, such as the Trikåfabriken project, which involved constructing a five-story addition to the roof of a 1920s textile factory. This wood-on-top approach allows builders to customize designs to user preferences and revise these designs to meet changing needs. The delegation also met with companies such as MoKo, Martinsons, Lindbäcks, and BoKlok and visited sites demonstrating innovative construction practices that increase productivity by 10 percent over traditional methods. In meetings with Swedish government officials at the U.S. embassy in Stockholm, the officials detailed plans to rely on industrialized housing delivery to build more affordable and environmentally sustainable housing units over the next 25 years through sustained and continuous collaboration among government, industry, and universities.

In the United Kingdom after World War II, the housing industry faced a crisis – a labor and material shortage coupled with an urgent need for new homes. Resolving this crisis required quick and efficient construction methods, which led government and industry stakeholders to explore prefabricated housing solutions. Because the demand for housing was so urgent, the government prioritized quantity over quality. In 2017, the U.K. government created an industry working group to help the mortgage finance, insurance, and pricing industries better understand modern methods of construction. The U.K. has advanced its homebuilding industry by shifting to performance-based construction standards rather than prescriptive methods.

During its visit, the delegation learned that the U.K. government has adopted Modern Methods of Construction (MMC): a set of alternative off- and onsite construction practices intended to improve the nation’s housing productivity and quality, such as incorporating robotics and electronic inspections into the construction process. The U.K. government detailed how it incentivizes homebuilders to adopt MMC practices to reduce waste and increase speed and efficiency regardless of the construction method used. U.K. officials also discussed how the government has used its influence to increase buy-in from lenders and insurance companies, ensuring that homes built using MMC practices can secure both mortgage loans and insurance coverage. During the site visit, the delegation traveled to Built Environment – Smarter Transformation’s labs in Scotland to learn about how the organization is testing new building materials.

The delegation also visited factories using wood building products such as cross-laminated timber at Legal & General and closed panel timber frames at Conceptual Construction Group. During travel south towards London, the delegation visited several factories that incorporate robotics and assembly-line building into their manufacturing processes. These visits also helped the delegation understand one notable benefit of fostering MMC practices: the increased use of robotics in U.K. factories to lift and hold panels. The use of robotics not only reduces worker injuries but also broadens the hiring pool by allowing nontraditional construction workers, including less-skilled workers and parents with young children who need flexible schedules, access to stable factory jobs.

Japan has been heralded as a global leader in providing affordable housing, having both an increasing supply and decreasing demand. Japan’s factory-built housing industry is well capitalized and vertically integrated, meaning that the developers themselves provide financing as well as build and site the homes. The delegation observed how involved Japan’s homebuilders are in the home purchasing process by visiting housing parks, where homebuilders educate potential customers about their homes, including the source of the homes’ raw materials, the homes’ safety and resiliency features, and the manufacturing process. As a result, unlike homebuyers in the United States, who hold many misconceptions about the quality of factory-built homes, Japanese homebuyers are willing to pay more for factory-built homes, which they consider to be safe, dependable, and of high quality.

One of the common elements found in the three countries is a shift away from adopting prescriptive codes and toward performance-based codes. Prescriptive codes specify the materials and methods developers must use, whereas performance-based codes specify the standards and thresholds required, allowing the industry to develop and employ materials and methods that meet or exceed current standards. Sweden’s embrace of performance-based codes has made the nation a global leader in sustainability in home construction, with housing-related carbon dioxide emissions at only 0.36 tons per capita compared with 1.64 tons per capita in Japan and 2.7 tons per capita in the United States. Inspection practices in Sweden, the U.K., and Japan were particularly efficient because inspections occur at the factory, where mistakes can be more easily corrected. The Japanese homebuilding industry has invested in technology and skilled laborers outside of the traditional building trades while making homes constructed offsite eligible for lower-interest mortgages. By contrast, inspections of all U.S. factory-built homes (other than HUD Code homes) take place onsite. Furthermore, apart from the HUD Code, the United States lacks a single, standard housing code for factory-built homes; instead, state agencies impose varying building codes, which complicates efforts to ship factory-built homes across state lines and scale growth.

The final report of the comparative study is scheduled for completion in 2024. For more discussion of performance-based codes, regulatory barriers and zoning issues, and case studies, please visit the Regulatory Barriers Clearinghouse. Forthcoming research regarding similar issues will also be made available as the result of awards from the 2023 Increasing the Supply of Affordable Housing through Off-Site Construction and Pro-Housing Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO).

Jagruti Rekhi, Social Science Analyst,

Affordable Housing Research & Technology Division, PD&R

Mark Reardon, Social Science Analyst,

Affordable Housing Research & Technology Division, PD&R

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Scottish Construction Industry ‘A Tipping Point’

A “tipping point” for Scotland’s construction industry as it faces aggregates crisis within 15 years

Less than 15 years’ worth of sands and aggregates left to quarry in Scotland’s current permitted reserves, warn Cumbernauld firm Brewster Brothers.

An award-winning Scottish company that’s already diverted almost one and a half million tonnes of construction waste from landfill says it’s imperative for the sector to move toward a more circular model, as the current permitted reserves in Scotland’s quarries will run out by the mid 2030s.

The most recent Aggregates and Minerals Survey done by the Scottish Government suggested that in 2019, there was only 18 years’ worth of sand and gravel left in Scotland’s quarries. The amount of recycled sand and aggregates supplied is on the rise, but can still grow enormously. The most recent report into how widespread the use of recycled aggregates is in Great Britain comes from the Mineral Products Association, which is the association for all aggregates producers, both virgin and recycled. Their report can be found here, but in essence says that in 2022, only 30% of the aggregates used were recycled. Below is a graph from the report detailing the amount of aggregates supplied in Great Britain over the last 70 years, and how much of that was recycled and secondary aggregates.

Any move toward the construction, demolition and excavation industries recycling more would be significant for Scotland’s net zero targets and circular economy ambitions. The sector generates 50% of Scotland’s waste, 40% of Scotland’s carbon emissions and is responsible for 50% of Scotland’s natural resource consumption.

Brewster Brothers, whose wash plants transform 100% of the excavated soils and rubble they process from the construction industry into high-value aggregates for reuse, believes there’s two mechanisms that could soon tip the balance in the right direction.

Firstly, SEPA recently consulted on its draft Integrated Authorisation Framework, which aims to provide a standardised, simplified, common framework for environmental authorisations in Scotland. This  represents a huge opportunity to drive more excavation waste up the waste hierarchy towards recycling, creating an increase in the supply of recycled aggregates

Secondly, the newly devolved Scottish Aggregates Tax could be set at a rate that incentivises everyone in construction to choose recycled sands and aggregates over their virgin equivalents. The devolved Scottish Aggregates Tax (SAT) is at Stage 3 of its journey through parliament in Holyrood, and will replace the UK Aggregates Levy. In a similar way to the UK Levy, SAT will put a small charge on the purchase of virgin sands and gravels. The current UK Levy is set at a rate that only makes virgin sands and gravels the same price as their recycled equivalents, whereas Brewster Brothers hopes that the new Scottish Tax will be set at a higher rate, giving a financial incentive to designers, procurers and contractors to choose recycled aggregates. The Aggregates Tax and Devolved Taxes Administration (Scotland) Bill is a framework bill, which means that the actual rate at which SAT will be set will be determined during a future Scottish Government Budget process.

Managing Director of Brewster Brothers Scott Brewster said:

“With less than fifteen years’ worth of sands and gravels left in Scotland’s quarries’ permitted reserves, this is a tipping point for Scotland. Either we can choose to open up more of the country to quarrying, or we can encourage the construction sector to recycle more of the waste products from excavation, and to buy recycled sands and aggregates to build with. At the moment, the waste hierarchy and duty of care is far too optional, and rather than recycling being mandatory, it is requested ‘where possible’ in planning and building regulations.

“The country also needs to use the Scottish Aggregates Tax as a springboard to incentivise further use of recycled aggregates and make them more competitive than their virgin equivalents. We have a huge opportunity here. According to SEPA, just 28% of UK aggregate demand is currently met with recycled aggregates. In Scotland, that number is 20%.”

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Planning Granted but Homes Unbuilt

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More than a million homes with planning permission left unbuilt since 2015

The inaugural Planning Portal Market Index has found that more than a million homes granted planning permission since 2015 have not yet been built, equating to around a third of the total given the green light over the period. The figures cast doubt on the near-exclusive focus of the major parties on boosting housebuilding numbers by tweaking the planning system.

At the same time, planning applications over the first five months of 2024 are at the lowest level since 2020, calling into question the scope for housebuilding numbers to recover in the coming years to meet ambitious manifesto targets.

The Planning Portal Market Index report offers the most up to date statistics on planning applications in England and Wales, with data reflecting the state of play as recently as 31 May – two months later than the period covered by the most recent official statistics. The statistics are drawn from planning applications submitted to local authorities in England and Wales – more than 90% of which are made through the Planning Portal.

Had all homes granted planning permission ultimately been built, the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year would have been achieved in eight of the last 10 years.

Geoff Keal, CEO at TerraQuest, the operator of Planning Portal, said: “These figures suggest that the near-exclusive focus on the planning system in the political debate around housing is misplaced. Until recently, planning permission was being granted for enough new homes to meet the government’s targets.

“While the planning system is by no means perfect, and those homes granted permission could be in the wrong places, this data strongly suggests that policymakers need to look more widely at the factors stifling the completion of homes for which planning permission has been granted.”

The Planning Portal Market Index report highlighted the impact of high interest rates, skills shortages in the construction industry and materials shortages as possible culprits.

Geoff added: “High interest rates have a double impact on the completion of new homes. By dampening the housing market in the short term, they limit the potential commercial rewards available to housebuilders for proceeding with projects. At the same time, the high cost of borrowing to finance projects in the first place pushes up costs and eats into developer profits.

“This is compounded by the well-publicised challenges facing the construction sector in overcoming skills shortages that have left its headcount more than a quarter of million short of the number needed to meet projected demand. Meanwhile, the supply of fundamental construction supplies of bricks and blocks are down by 4.3% and 9.8% over the year to April, according to official statistics.

“Our analysis shows just how profound the challenges are for policymakers in ensuring enough new homes are built to meet the needs of a growing population.

Rosalind Andrews, Partner, Head of Planning, Highways and Environment at HCR Law, added: “The findings from the Planning Portal Application Index June 2024 report highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by the housebuilding sector. Increasing the delivery of much-needed homes across the UK is incredibly complex, with the number of residential planning permissions granted being only one aspect of the issue.

“Project viability is also a concern, given the increases in material costs and lending rates, as well as the new expenses associated with BNG requirements. Housebuilders are eager to commence construction and break ground.

“To meet the ambitious target of delivering 300,000 homes a year, it is crucial to address the industry’s capacity in terms of skilled labour. With the right support and training initiatives, the housebuilding sector can rise to this challenge and achieve these goals.”

 

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Construction Forecast: Gloomy, Getting Brighter, but No Heatwave

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Disruption stifles short-term growth

Construction starts have remained sluggish during the first six months of 2024, as high interest rates and a weak economic outlook dented investor and consumer confidence.

The General Election has also affected the pipeline of public-sector construction projects. The purdah period has disrupted the progress of public-funded projects, while decisions will also be delayed post-election as the new government reviews existing programmes such as the Lower Thames Crossing.

Starts on the up

However, an easing in borrowing costs and improved economic conditions – with the UK economy forecast to grow around 0.8% in 2024 – together with greater political certainty, should help to lift investor confidence from the second half of 2024 and into next year.

Despite a tough start, renewed growth in project-starts is forecast for H2 2024. The gradual easing of interest rates is also expected to feed through to lift housing market activity from the second half of this year.

Further, the Spending Review will set out the new government’s funding commitments and priorities and is expected to strengthen public sector construction activity during the second half of the forecast period.

Commenting on the Forecast, Glenigan’s Economic Director Allan Wilen says, “The UK construction sector is still facing significant headwinds as the economy struggles to pick back up. However, there are signs of growth in several key areas, particularly in the private verticals, signalling a gradual recovery from mid-2024. In the private housing sector, for example, we anticipate starts will pick up in the latter half of this year, driven by improved affordability and brighter economic prospects.

“Similarly, we’re forecasting improved activity in consumer-related verticals such as retail and hotel & leisure, as a gradual easing in price inflation is set to provide a boost to households’ spending power. Elsewhere, structural changes are expected to create new opportunities in office refurb and fit-out, while logistics is poised for renewed investment fuelled by online retail growth.

However, he acknowledges the upcoming General Election will have a significant upfront impact on industry performance, particularly in the public sector, “Public-funded investment is expected to stagnate in the near term. The election has disrupted the progress of many projects, with the purdah period leading up to the 4th of July preventing civil servants from making any announcements that could influence voting intentions. As a result, decisions will be delayed until post-election. For example, the Department for Transport has already announced that ministerial decisions on several major projects, including the Lower Thames Crossing, have been pushed back by six months. This means we’ll have to wait until the new Government’s Spending Review for further clarity on budget allocation, and this might not be until Q.4 2024.”

Taking a deeper dive into sector verticals…

Private housing set to rebound

Housing market activity fell sharply in 2023, with the value of project-starts dipping 11% as housebuilders reacted to weakening market conditions and more stringent building regulations.

Private housing starts are predicted to experience slow growth over the forecast period, with Glenigan predicting a 2% rise in 2024 as the market environment gradually picks up. An increase in mortgage approvals in March 2024 (the highest in 18 months) points to a strengthening in house sales in the coming months.

Renewed project-starts recovery is also anticipated in the second half of the forecast period, rising 14% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, as interest rates dip and consumer confidence improves.

Social housing stabilises

The forecast for social housing is mixed, with starts predicted to experience modest growth over the next three years, with a slight dip in 2025.

Greater stabilisation to previously eye-watering construction materials costs in 2024 is expected to boost the sector, with a 4% rise forecast for 2024.

Student accommodation starts are expected to stagnate significantly over the forecast period, due to the government’s visa restrictions on graduate schemes which will likely weaken demand for purpose-built student accommodation. Having been a key driver of sector growth in 2023, this is anticipated to slow down sector recovery.

Glenigan is forecasting a slight decline (-1%) in 2025, however, increased government funding for social housing provision, a major political priority, is expected to lift starts by 7% in 2026.

Slightly brighter outlook for industrial

The industrial sector is experiencing a period of consolidation following a boom post-pandemic, largely driven by significant growth in warehousing and light industrial projects. Looking forward, industrial project-starts are expected to remain weak for the rest of the year, before returning to growth in 2025.

A decline in consumer spending caused the online retail market to lose momentum, tempering the demand for logistics space. Meanwhile, manufacturing output has also been subdued, limiting investment in facilities.

Nevertheless, as the economic outlook and household finances improve, the sector should see renewed growth fuelled by the demand for warehousing and logistics. Consequently, Glenigan is forecasting a 3% growth in 2025, and 4% in 2026.

Utilities to boost civil engineering

A sustained rise in civil engineering starts is anticipated over the next three years, driven by an increase in utilities projects as energy and water companies roll out planned investments. Overall, civil engineering starts are forecast to grow 12% in 2024, with further growth in 2025 (+6%) and 2026 (+4%).

The delivery of existing and planned major capital projects will also drive sector growth from 2025, including HS2 Phase 1.

Retail recovery

Weak consumer spending and the growth in online sales’ market share have constrained retail construction starts over the past year.

Despite this, improving consumer spending is expected to support a recovery in starts from 2024 as retailers and developers move forward with planned projects, with Glenigan forecasting 3% growth in 2025, and 19% in 2026.

Investment by the deep discount supermarkets, Aldi and Lidl, is set to be a relative bright spot within the sector over the forecast period, boosting growth.

Refurb opportunities for offices

Office starts have rebounded since 2023, after weakening economic growth and high interest rates dampened investor confidence and project-starts.

The sector is predicted to benefit over the forecast period from a rise in refurbishment projects, as landlords adapt premises to further accommodate for the rise in hybrid working.

Furthermore, demand for premium ‘green’ office space, is set to support a rise in new build starts during the forecast period.

These opportunities for the sector are predicted to drive growth over the next two years, 12% in 2025, and 4% in 2026.

Hospitality bounces back

The sector was slow to recover post-pandemic, experiencing a period of financial pressure thanks to sharp cost inflation, labour shortages, and weak sales.

However, the hotel & leisure sector is poised for a comeback, with rising disposable incomes and a projected surge in UK tourism expected to fuel investment and propel project-starts over the next three years.

The sector is forecast to see a growth of 6% in 2025, and 7% in 2026.

School projects in danger

A modest rise of 9% in school project-starts is forecast for 2024, building on the momentum from the previous year. Increases to the Department of Education’s capital funding and committed work to tackling RAAC deficiencies saw the sector enjoy significant growth.

However, the general election and the subsequent review period by the incoming government and a decline in higher education projects could dampen overall education project-starts during 2024 (-5%) and 2025 (-5%).

Despite the temporary disruption, Labour’s commitment to increased education funding could lead to a surge in demand for school building projects, driving 6% project-starts recovery in 2026.

NHS investment fuels health growth

Although the post-election spending review may moderate project-starts in 2025, the long-term outlook for the health sector remains positive.

14% growth is forecast for 2024 as delayed projects from 2023 progress to site.

Longer term, NHS capital funding is set to support a rise in starts from 2026, when the sector is forecast to see 4% growth.

These forecasts are built upon the analysis of Glenigan’s database of current and planned construction projects, which have been examined alongside other market and economic variables. To request a copy of Glenigan’s UK Construction Industry Forecast 2024-2026, click here.

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